PolyBot

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Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
None on this market
Ends
2026-10-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.007. down 0.003 over the period, from 0.011. Range 0.007 to 0.013. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0085050
0.0173484
0.01996179
0.02021200
0.025200400
0.0262,0002,400
0.0271842,584
0.05072,591
0.054302,621
0.10072,628
0.20072,635
0.5002002,835

Spread0.001Mid0.007

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0073131
0.0041648
0.003800848
0.0022,5853,432
0.00146,35449,786

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9933131
0.9961648
0.997800848
0.9982,5853,432
0.99946,35449,786

Spread0.001Mid0.992

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9925050
0.9833484
0.98196179
0.98021200
0.975200400
0.9742,0002,400
0.9731842,584
0.95072,591
0.946302,621
0.90072,628
0.80072,635
0.5002002,835

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
SanchoSANYes378.91
thecaricatureYes352.43
Olek098Yes282.95
jutneqewjYes200
0xe0111c932dDF1C517B31E8CF14Ea8aa534C19e82-1777333572129Yes147.55
0x5d0b…05e2Yes130.86
AJSVYes99.39
0x5a69…81a8Yes56.54
0x629DeD69171382fa8EC3A138f5673f1639FAa370-1775617096210Yes55.56
AnonymousbetaYes55.56
LornaPredictsYes50
a5533Yes49.91
Dr.PNLYes45.27
akko123Yes42.11
0xE9f2e4FFb806eE414C62ce7167125Fdb22F2F982-1781633647844Yes38.16
Victoria909Yes32.26
opusimusmaximusYes20
gaut6375Yes19.98
xobie3Yes19.23
0x589f…4046Yes16.67

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
02:52:52SELLNo0.983563665438$36.92
18:11:34BUYNo0.99315$14.89
10:23:49BUYNo0.992999999952$52.00
21:26:46SELLYes0.00721$0.15
22:07:22BUYNo0.99335$34.90
07:02:58BUYNo0.99231$30.75
17:47:40BUYNo0.99221$21.00
05:19:07BUYNo0.9927$6.63
03:12:36BUYNo0.9922$2.00
01:42:25SELLNo0.9811$1.43
18:54:10BUYNo0.992999999936$35.40
05:29:16SELLNo0.9827$7.08
04:54:42BUYNo0.9921$1.20
16:49:34SELLNo0.984829570763$61.95
09:33:34SELLNo0.9854$3.98
05:24:21SELLNo0.9857$6.97
15:44:21SELLNo0.985468175954$53.11
10:06:37SELLNo0.9869$8.97
12:00:06BUYNo0.99299999954$4.22
11:19:48BUYNo0.9929999995$5.16
06:40:37SELLYes0.0089$0.07
22:15:01BUYNo0.991102$101.11
06:38:30BUYNo0.999$8.91
07:50:25BUYNo0.99332$32.09
00:03:04BUYYes0.017999982556$1.00