0x589fe24a79925370cae231a18a7e474632e34046
- Realised P&L
- $-39.38
- Volume
- $20.3k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $1.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.039 | $0.92 | −$3.08 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.005 | $0.61 | −$9.39 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.009 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.007 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.464 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.81at 0.387Cavaliers vs. Raptors
- +$15.00at 0.440Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
- +$12.50at 0.355Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $470-$480 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?
- +$11.23at 0.652Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026?
- +$8.88at 0.360Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 29-January 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-05 09:13 | Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 06-05 09:12 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.40 |
| 06-05 09:12 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.57 |
| 06-05 09:12 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.73 |
| 06-05 08:19 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.4639999647 | $2.00 |
| 06-05 08:18 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.159 | $2.80 |
| 06-02 19:13 | Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? | BUY | 0.0309999705 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 19:13 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.0539999504 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 19:13 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 19:11 | Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $6.00 |
| 06-02 19:10 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.357 | $10.04 |
| 05-29 21:34 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.32 | $9.00 |
| 05-29 21:34 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.139 | $9.79 |
| 05-28 21:54 | Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $6.00 |
| 05-28 21:53 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1699999609 | $3.00 |