PolyBot

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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-09

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.244. down 0.183 over the period, from 0.427. Range 0.206 to 0.450. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.2879191
0.2889100
0.34720120
0.37710130
0.37835165
0.3795170
0.3815175
0.3825180
0.3835185
0.3855190
0.3865195
0.3875200

Spread0.086Mid0.244

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.20166
0.2002329
0.1511342
0.1243072
0.1232597
0.1089106
0.090100206
0.0812208
0.05618226
0.0315232
0.02324256
0.02240296

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.79966
0.8002329
0.8491342
0.8763072
0.8772597
0.8929106
0.910100206
0.9192208
0.94418226
0.9695232
0.97724256
0.97840296

Spread0.086Mid0.756

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.7139191
0.7129100
0.65320120
0.62310130
0.62235165
0.6215170
0.6195175
0.6185180
0.6175185
0.6155190
0.6145195
0.6135200

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
ratehikesYes4,773.98
CDAP1Yes3,784.65
akimbogodYes2,967.5
DeadheadbuckyYes1,364.13
dgprntaYes1,357.41
podairpodYes1,139.3
TheReturnOfDarthMaulYes1,016.94
Ume-ChangYes745.15
DancewithRiskYes738.44
SunbreonYes515.95
cry.eth2Yes471.27
hippokaYes450
0x1D36756fbAAED1433bF59c80b105396513d82A3b-1771747868231Yes406.94
OkaneKaseguYes379.41
GioYoGentleYes355.5
125-kooyanisqatsiYes341.66
donthackmeYes332.38
JotaFowardYes261.19
2B9SYes251
0x796E609a697e1C9Ca99A80C1C342B2F4dBef3426-1772815661198Yes224.61

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
01:25:58BUYNo0.84899949651$1.00
01:25:54BUYYes0.168225650$8.41
01:25:37BUYYes0.15350$7.65
01:25:22BUYYes0.15350$7.65
01:25:16BUYNo0.847999997513$10.85
01:25:15SELLYes0.1539$1.38
19:12:10BUYNo0.74910$7.49
19:12:10BUYNo0.74945662111$8.21
18:59:34BUYNo0.74899999438$5.78
18:00:25BUYNo0.71388$62.79
16:32:30SELLNo0.5910$0.24
15:44:18BUYNo0.625620$12.51
15:42:00BUYNo0.5975$2.98
15:40:09BUYNo0.5995$3.23
15:36:56BUYNo0.5992$0.95
15:31:42BUYNo0.61945$3.10
15:31:42BUYNo0.6099$5.48
15:31:41BUYYes0.4049$3.64
15:26:36BUYNo0.610710$6.11
15:26:36BUYNo0.59913$7.79
15:21:41BUYNo0.60699996029$5.49
15:21:33BUYNo0.58915$8.67
15:21:33BUYNo0.5895$2.94
15:21:33BUYNo0.5894$2.52
15:21:33BUYNo0.57111$6.17