PolyBot

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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.257. up 0.090 over the period, from 0.167. Range 0.158 to 0.297. 147 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.2835050
0.2883080
0.2891595
0.29010105
0.291175280
0.292337617
0.299249866
0.30045911
0.3011001,011
0.3051001,111
0.3064001,511
0.308501,561

Spread0.051Mid0.258

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.2323030
0.2313060
0.218565
0.204570
0.2021181
0.2011394
0.190599
0.1819108
0.17920128
0.1775133
0.1645138
0.1535143

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.7683030
0.7693060
0.782565
0.796570
0.7981181
0.7991394
0.810599
0.8199108
0.82120128
0.8235133
0.8365138
0.8475143

Spread0.051Mid0.742

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.7175050
0.7123080
0.7111595
0.71010105
0.709175280
0.708337617
0.701249866
0.70045911
0.6991001,011
0.6951001,111
0.6944001,511
0.692501,561

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
ratehikesYes4,773.98
CDAP1Yes4,690.51
akimbogodYes2,967.5
dgprntaYes1,357.41
DeadheadbuckyYes1,064.13
TheReturnOfDarthMaulYes1,016.94
tradingwhatYes1,000
DancewithRiskYes972.52
Ume-ChangYes745.15
JotaFowardYes522.95
SunbreonYes515.95
SC261001Yes513.74
hippokaYes500
HospitalHippoYes498.84
newnewuserYes423.98
0x1D36756fbAAED1433bF59c80b105396513d82A3b-1771747868231Yes406.94
OkaneKaseguYes379.41
GioYoGentleYes355.5
LornaPredictsYes351
donthackmeYes319.22

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
20:00:55BUYNo0.755$3.75
13:36:24BUYYes0.252834801873$18.37
02:15:42BUYYes0.24912$2.99
01:11:46BUYYes0.2550942877116$29.65
01:11:45BUYYes0.2540084526290$73.62
14:32:32BUYYes0.1915$2.82
13:50:44BUYYes0.1892863142105$19.83
13:43:38BUYYes0.187267846266$12.28
12:55:52SELLNo0.81222$17.60
10:42:07BUYYes0.1823$0.52
10:42:05BUYYes0.181483763524$4.36
09:52:50SELLYes0.13715$2.04
09:52:46SELLYes0.1381$0.14
09:52:38SELLYes0.13813$1.86
09:52:32SELLYes0.13930$4.17
08:08:25BUYYes0.1820$3.53
07:37:52BUYNo0.861712297922$18.69
07:37:31BUYYes0.176097744467$11.71
05:54:32BUYYes0.173388753149$8.51
19:34:29SELLYes0.14121664125$17.65
18:29:25SELLYes0.1442$5.86
18:20:58BUYNo0.855540$34.22
18:09:46BUYNo0.859666666730$25.79
18:05:31BUYNo0.85630$25.68
18:04:10BUYNo0.85637$31.67