PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

CDAP1

0xe033e9d4a0e8b30c417f3f7abcb029bc695940a5

Realised P&L
$75.8k
Volume
$13.72M
Markets traded
68
Open portfolio
$209.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded68
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration74.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample31 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration86.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes0.6470.705$181.2k+$14.9k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes0.3190.245$17.2k−$5.2k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting? · Yes0.4790.495$4.3k+$135.71
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? · No0.4930.981$1.4k+$685.66
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0610.256$1.2k+$914.27
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.7450.680$665.83−$63.59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1990.275$645.53+$178.69
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? · No0.9160.977$569.42+$35.52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes0.7160.695$392.22−$11.80
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.1520.968$387.05+$326.12
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? · Yes0.7400.698$322.69−$19.80
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting? · Yes0.2430.275$251.56+$29.36
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0540.013$176.02−$532.36
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes0.2600.275$122.37+$6.67
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes0.7620.720$61.99−$3.62

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 19:39Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.1$6.33
11-01 19:39Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?BUY0.7$44.30
11-01 19:39Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.1102098609$6.97
10-31 19:37Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?SELL0.7$1.1k
10-31 19:37Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?SELL0.28$430.19
10-31 08:30Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?SELL0.71$7.10
10-31 08:30Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?SELL0.28$2.80
10-30 20:23Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.11$1.22
10-30 20:23Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?BUY0.71$7.88
10-30 20:23Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.0900900901$1.00
10-30 19:07Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?BUY0.73$55.56
10-30 19:07Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.1194599921$9.09
10-30 19:07Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.06$4.57
10-30 18:49Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.06$2.93
10-30 18:49Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?BUY0.12$5.86