PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

newnewuser

0x1dd197fa8bb4d6887ffecf89b75171aea7d7a156

Realised P&L
$36.3k
Volume
$19.65M
Markets traded
439
Open portfolio
$19.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded439
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No0.7250.875$4.2k+$725.06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? · No0.6530.685$2.0k+$93.13
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8090.855$1.3k+$67.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.7250.775$1.2k+$79.50
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No0.9640.996$1.1k+$36.25
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? · No0.9210.984$901.50+$56.90
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.9600.983$875.52+$20.37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? · No0.6290.635$729.42+$6.42
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Yes0.6030.982$629.18+$242.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? · Yes0.6170.635$578.54+$16.67
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No0.6300.505$577.46$142.94
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No0.7720.885$554.77+$70.96
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No0.9140.935$531.40+$12.15
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1580.065$372.46$533.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0960.085$330.81$41.06

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-18 03:29Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.918$2.4k
06-18 03:28Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.082$76.89
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.999$3.3k
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?SELL0.999$411.05
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?SELL0.999$5.8k
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?SELL0.999$17.2k
06-16 14:17US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.002$0.08
06-07 20:53Iran closes its airspace by July 31?BUY0.91$2.0k
06-07 20:52Iran closes its airspace by July 15?BUY0.91$364.00
06-07 20:52Iran closes its airspace by July 15?BUY0.91$273.00
06-07 20:50Iran closes its airspace by June 8?SELL0.1557485217$312.11
05-27 20:32Trump out as President by May 31?SELL0.999$99.90
05-27 20:17Trump out as President by May 31?SELL0.999$99.90
05-27 20:02Trump out as President by May 31?SELL0.999$99.90
05-25 21:46Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?BUY0.64$3.20