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newnewuser

0x1dd197fa8bb4d6887ffecf89b75171aea7d7a156

Realised P&L
$36.1k
Volume
$19.72M
Markets traded
446
Open portfolio
$11.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded446
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.6640.705$1.8k+$102.45
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No0.9640.994$1.1k+$33.37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? · No0.4830.485$943.77+$3.19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No0.7250.930$940.46+$207.48
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? · No0.9210.990$907.45+$62.85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? · No0.6000.590$590.00−$10.00
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? · No0.9460.949$519.44+$1.53
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8700.865$414.22−$2.39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.3290.335$396.98+$6.77
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? · No0.3500.360$360.00+$10.00
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? · No0.5780.280$339.02−$360.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? · No0.3300.330$332.64+$0.21
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.8160.800$245.06−$4.87
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1580.045$217.36−$545.93
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No0.9850.999$199.70+$2.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-18 03:29Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.918$2.4k
06-18 03:28Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.082$76.89
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.999$3.3k
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?SELL0.999$411.05
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?SELL0.999$5.8k
06-17 06:47US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?SELL0.999$17.2k
06-16 14:17US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.002$0.08
06-07 20:53Iran closes its airspace by July 31?BUY0.91$2.0k
06-07 20:52Iran closes its airspace by July 15?BUY0.91$364.00
06-07 20:52Iran closes its airspace by July 15?BUY0.91$273.00
06-07 20:50Iran closes its airspace by June 8?SELL0.1557485217$312.11
05-27 20:32Trump out as President by May 31?SELL0.999$99.90
05-27 20:17Trump out as President by May 31?SELL0.999$99.90
05-27 20:02Trump out as President by May 31?SELL0.999$99.90
05-25 21:46Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?BUY0.64$3.20
Trader newnewuser · PolyBot Pro