Ume-Chang
0xae89da6594bb0d421c8d807d74e213f8729e90b8
- Realised P&L
- $-9.8k
- Volume
- $900.1k
- Markets traded
- 7,983
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded7,983
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.490 | $2.0k | +$369.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.175 | $1.4k | −$3.5k |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.004 | $259.19 | −$12.8k |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.248 | $184.80 | +$142.20 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.057 | $73.97 | −$193.99 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? · No | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$633.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.0kat 0.661US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$7.8kat 0.820US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$5.6kat 0.264Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$4.6kat 0.665US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$4.0kat 0.671US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 04:25 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.17 | $79.42 |
| 09-14 04:25 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.2 | $351.92 |
| 09-13 21:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $105.43 |
| 09-13 19:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $96.94 |
| 09-13 16:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $58.68 |
| 09-13 12:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $44.59 |
| 09-13 12:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $14.64 |
| 09-13 12:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $37.73 |
| 09-13 12:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $9.55 |
| 09-13 12:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $22.55 |
| 09-13 10:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $15.52 |
| 09-13 09:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $8.24 |
| 09-13 09:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $60.63 |
| 09-13 07:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 09-13 07:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $6.09 |