PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699

Realised P&L
$-628.6k
Volume
$16.29M
Markets traded
1,177
Open portfolio
$2.00M

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,177
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.9590.989$621.6k+$18.7k
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.7760.887$442.4k+$55.6k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.4790.565$174.2k+$26.5k
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No0.8600.925$111.2k+$7.8k
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.8510.920$88.3k+$6.7k
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.4730.675$70.6k+$21.1k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · Yes0.8990.880$45.8k$989.82
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · No0.9360.978$45.1k+$1.9k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · No0.9100.959$43.8k+$2.2k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No0.7920.865$41.5k+$3.5k
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · No0.7800.885$39.4k+$4.7k
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8870.960$31.7k+$2.4k
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? · No0.8790.978$28.0k+$2.8k
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · No0.8490.935$25.2k+$2.3k
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? · No0.8290.920$22.1k+$2.2k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:05Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.56$3.9k
08-02 22:05Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.56$280.00
08-02 22:05Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.56$1.4k
07-31 21:00Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.61$18.91
07-31 21:00Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY0.61$549.61
07-31 20:59Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY0.61$3.05
07-31 20:59Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.6107723027$1.8k
07-31 20:59Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.61$18.91
07-31 20:59Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.599168117$6.8k
07-31 20:59Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY0.6065371809$546.49
07-31 20:59Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5833704$875.06
07-31 20:59Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.58$1.4k
07-31 20:58Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5918322847$5.9k
07-31 20:58Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY0.59$2.95
07-31 20:55Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?BUY0.5836162276$2.5k