TheReturnOfDarthMaul
0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699
- Realised P&L
- $-628.6k
- Volume
- $16.29M
- Markets traded
- 1,177
- Open portfolio
- $2.00M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,177
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.7kat 0.747Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$24.9kat 0.724US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$19.7kat 0.007Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
- +$16.1kat 0.169Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$15.5kat 0.631Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.56 | $3.9k |
| 08-02 22:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.56 | $280.00 |
| 08-02 22:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.56 | $1.4k |
| 07-31 21:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.61 | $18.91 |
| 07-31 21:00 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.61 | $549.61 |
| 07-31 20:59 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.61 | $3.05 |
| 07-31 20:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6107723027 | $1.8k |
| 07-31 20:59 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.61 | $18.91 |
| 07-31 20:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.599168117 | $6.8k |
| 07-31 20:59 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.6065371809 | $546.49 |
| 07-31 20:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5833704 | $875.06 |
| 07-31 20:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.4k |
| 07-31 20:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5918322847 | $5.9k |
| 07-31 20:58 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 07-31 20:55 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5836162276 | $2.5k |