PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-09-28
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.045. down 0.225 over the period, from 0.270. Range 0.045 to 0.545. 63 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0606060
0.07349109
0.21031140
0.24011151
0.52015165
0.93810175
0.93919194
0.94033227
0.942300527
0.96025552
0.98050602
0.98913614

Spread0.029Mid0.045

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0313030
0.030269299
0.01529328
0.01468395
0.013300695
0.0117702
0.0108710
0.00447758
0.00378836
0.0022241,060
0.0011121,172

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9693030
0.970269299
0.98529328
0.98668395
0.987300695
0.9897702
0.9908710
0.99647758
0.99778836
0.9982241,060
0.9991121,172

Spread0.029Mid0.954

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9406060
0.92749109
0.79031140
0.76011151
0.48015165
0.06210175
0.06119194
0.06033227
0.058300527
0.04025552
0.02050602
0.01113614

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
youtube-traderYes299.21
cigarettesYes178.2
rocky42002Yes114
AJSVYes70.7
nana130299Yes62.75
Numitus1994Yes49
pad6Yes40
edge999Yes39.09
ConsensusOfCredibleReportingYes14.55
cactus-testYes13.01
V4Mb7vN6JDACV1Yes8
easyautomateYes7.25
0xf0d2…1c3bYes6.64
0x2360…7315Yes6.53
0xfb4e…3a44Yes6.53
0xad0e…8d1dYes6.33
0x5602…0bc9Yes6.25
0xcab7…9232Yes4.66
0xfc11…44d8Yes4.66
0x700b…09cdYes4.61

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
09:23:08BUYNo0.97100$97.00
16:41:03SELLYes0.0317$0.22
12:22:59BUYNo0.97100$97.00
12:22:35BUYNo0.9484444444135$128.04
09:58:50SELLNo0.929$8.34
17:29:46BUYNo0.9184848485330$303.10
17:28:48BUYNo0.9219$17.67
17:28:43BUYNo0.89542$37.59
17:11:45BUYNo0.8750$43.50
16:49:00BUYYes0.247$1.74
16:48:55BUYNo0.7655$41.46
16:40:34SELLYes0.257$1.75
16:40:33BUYNo0.6985$58.75
16:36:51SELLYes0.2915$4.31
16:35:55BUYNo0.623139224664$39.70
16:34:12SELLYes0.3257928144325$105.73
16:34:00BUYYes0.3437591668325$111.56
15:56:31SELLNo0.673$2.09
15:27:09BUYNo0.70999991542$1.51
15:27:07BUYNo0.704769843877$54.17
15:27:07BUYYes0.32999989443$1.00
15:27:07BUYNo0.68999995861$1.00
15:27:07BUYYes0.32999989443$1.00
15:27:06BUYYes0.3299999343$1.10
15:27:06BUYNo0.68999995861$1.00