0x5602dc5856376a28dc9d215cf7725e35f7300bc9
0x5602dc5856376a28dc9d215cf7725e35f7300bc9
- Realised P&L
- $10.63
- Volume
- $157.13
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $12.01
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.940 | $2.88 | +$1.35 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.993 | $2.70 | +$0.69 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.740 | $2.39 | +$0.39 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.785 | $1.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.270 | $1.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.045 | $0.28 | −$1.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.29at 0.282Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.00at 0.400US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.460Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$2.21at 0.410S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$1.80at 0.532Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 12:02 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 04:02 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998946 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 20:02 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 12:01 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 15:13 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 07:08 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 22:03 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299997409 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 11:13 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 22:17 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 13:57 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2717654946 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 05:51 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 05:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.50 |
| 09-15 21:36 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 05:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 17:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |