PolyBot

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Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.992. up 0.036 over the period, from 0.956. Range 0.952 to 0.992. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.998180180
0.9992,1062,286

Spread0.012Mid0.992

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9861616
0.9855066
0.981185251
0.9807258
0.97939298
0.96350348
0.962537884
0.95250934
0.8973001,234
0.8551501,384
0.5001001,484
0.480501,534

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0141616
0.0155066
0.019185251
0.0207258
0.02139298
0.03750348
0.038537884
0.04850934
0.1033001,234
0.1451501,384
0.5001001,484
0.520501,534

Spread0.012Mid0.008

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.002180180
0.0012,1062,286

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
KimchiCapitalYes2,106.31
smartpresetYes588.94
0x2E1C6E971cff5c3259090d3dEa7802A15e4eDB61-1779115991589Yes428.24
0x8cc1…3ee7Yes159.82
NeevSYes95
Invictus07Yes45.28
thoodrYes40
postmetaYes20.11
0x2d48…678cYes16.93
LornaPredictsNo1,019.19
Dr.PNLNo555.25
FelicityBrightNo536.92
qqqppp-l1No195.83
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.No149.78
donshowzyNo142.86
longdated-poliNo139.44
E10ESpoascknasjdhajdDas12tNo100
akunaiNo100
AJSVNo97.78
E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc8No78.33

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
06:04:05SELLNo0.00350$0.15
22:58:39SELLNo0.00220$0.04
03:35:57SELLYes0.9824$4.25
16:54:38SELLNo0.002508$1.02
16:54:35SELLNo0.003147$0.44
16:54:33SELLNo0.00425$0.10
16:54:32SELLNo0.00520$0.10
08:48:29SELLYes0.985$4.50
05:15:57SELLYes0.983$2.77
10:46:29SELLYes0.981$0.98
10:46:19BUYYes0.9981$1.00
08:29:58SELLYes0.984$4.38
18:44:40SELLNo0.002100$0.20
17:27:16SELLNo0.001250$0.06
17:27:12SELLNo0.001250$0.06
17:27:06SELLNo0.00150$0.05
17:17:09SELLNo0.001100$0.10
17:07:19SELLNo0.00199$0.10
17:07:12SELLNo0.001100$0.10
16:58:07SELLNo0.001280$0.28
16:54:36SELLNo0.012762181340$0.51
16:54:34SELLNo0.0150$0.50
16:54:34SELLNo0.0134$0.05
16:54:34SELLNo0.010062850$0.50
16:54:34SELLNo0.011908250$0.60