PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

smartpreset

0x16807201e53a62e472b1b62e7835833c1222490d

Realised P&L
$-26.5k
Volume
$1.41M
Markets traded
795
Open portfolio
$4.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded795
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9650.992$584.22+$15.88
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? · No0.8830.885$507.71+$0.87
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2230.110$495.92−$510.35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes0.6900.685$280.46−$2.02
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.6160.665$252.21+$18.44
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · No0.1500.290$202.72+$98.28
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? · No0.6900.966$162.32+$46.32
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2830.295$161.45+$6.71
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? · Yes0.8500.690$103.87−$24.08
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0590.045$86.00−$26.59
Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026? · No0.8920.972$84.63+$6.95
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · Yes0.3760.115$83.91−$190.08
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? · Yes0.7000.690$82.80−$1.20
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · Yes0.4770.225$82.68−$92.52
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C? · No0.8510.865$78.79+$1.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-26 13:26Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?BUY0.979$29.37
09-26 13:25Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams?BUY0.31$28.02
09-26 13:13Will Marcos Rogério win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?BUY0.85$42.00
09-26 13:11Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?BUY0.7596286252$72.00
09-26 12:36Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.6056721798$85.69
09-26 12:32Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$1.57
09-26 12:32Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$28.98
09-26 12:31Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$1.74
09-26 12:31Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.6$17.93
09-26 12:30Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.5815917603$37.27
09-26 12:30Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$5.86
09-26 12:29Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$117.26
09-26 12:29Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$74.07
09-26 12:29Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$47.28
09-26 12:29Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 WinnerSELL0.61$11.71