0x8cc1d32432a34cedbd2e1f3f849c326feb793ee7
0x8cc1d32432a34cedbd2e1f3f849c326feb793ee7
- Realised P&L
- $37.17
- Volume
- $979.98
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $355.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.964 | $154.07 | +$0.64 |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.750 | 0.720 | $98.22 | −$4.09 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.752 | 0.910 | $57.56 | +$9.99 |
| Will Fiorentina qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.501 | $45.32 | +$21.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.77at 0.800Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$21.03at 0.827Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
- +$18.98at 0.866Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$-35.61at 0.349Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 14:43 | Will Fiorentina qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.2653264366 | $24.00 |
| 09-06 11:27 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7520948617 | $47.57 |
| 09-06 07:18 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $102.31 |
| 09-05 06:18 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $153.43 |
| 09-01 20:44 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8569999966 | $121.53 |
| 07-27 12:35 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8172157161 | $99.50 |
| 07-27 12:34 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3380414684 | $34.52 |
| 07-27 12:34 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999945 | $129.84 |