Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-07-01
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 50 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.928. up 0.104 over the period, from 0.825. Range 0.805 to 0.997. 167 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.930	16	16
0.937	51	67
0.938	425	492
0.939	248	740
0.940	280	1,020
0.941	223	1,243
0.942	143	1,387
0.943	67	1,454
0.944	159	1,613
0.949	450	2,063
0.950	396	2,459
0.954	109	2,568

Spread0.003Mid0.929

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.927	51	51
0.920	50	101
0.919	575	676
0.917	227	902
0.916	75	978
0.915	581	1,559
0.914	212	1,771
0.913	350	2,121
0.908	500	2,621
0.907	335	2,956
0.903	209	3,165
0.897	445	3,610

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.073	51	51
0.080	50	101
0.081	575	676
0.083	227	902
0.084	75	978
0.085	581	1,559
0.086	212	1,771
0.087	350	2,121
0.092	500	2,621
0.093	335	2,956
0.097	209	3,165
0.103	445	3,610

Spread0.003Mid0.072

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.070	16	16
0.063	51	67
0.062	425	492
0.061	248	740
0.060	280	1,020
0.059	223	1,243
0.058	143	1,387
0.057	67	1,454
0.056	159	1,613
0.051	450	2,063
0.050	396	2,459
0.046	109	2,568

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Milksheen	Yes	3,853.92
SusanWarrenHR	Yes	371.58
AJSV	Yes	129.82
AboveLookUp	Yes	124.15
OrionStars	Yes	113.64
techhawk	Yes	113.64
romanova	Yes	80
Haradwaith	Yes	66.99
MatrixBreaker-HR48	Yes	61
Mithrandir.	Yes	50
VolynMolfar	Yes	49.58
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	37.02
PPMT	Yes	29.94
0x6ac316DDB36938aCcAddf5a3B34075588BA73c8B-1766649532873	Yes	21.38
trader-0eec4a7f	Yes	17.49
0xEae721187d1113C0a9BB79d2a13335F7d8618E9E-1734009839636	Yes	11.76
UpTheStairs	Yes	7.43
Elias.Thornwell	Yes	5
ox7eD3aed17a79c2A3375Da27a9470b310585027AA	Yes	3.16
yo2000	Yes	1.27

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
17:10:49	SELL	Yes	0.9238337132	259	$239.17
17:09:45	BUY	No	0.069	30	$2.07
17:09:27	BUY	No	0.072	41	$2.96
17:09:22	BUY	No	0.0724222092	376	$27.25
17:08:34	SELL	Yes	0.9288088	50	$46.44
12:56:41	BUY	Yes	0.93441	100	$93.44
12:56:38	BUY	Yes	0.9109841585	947	$862.59
10:34:31	BUY	Yes	0.91	15	$13.65
05:31:43	BUY	Yes	0.91	30	$27.30
04:38:08	BUY	Yes	0.91	5	$4.55
16:01:51	BUY	No	0.1074117647	51	$5.48
15:12:34	SELL	Yes	0.875	50	$43.75
14:17:47	SELL	Yes	0.829	100	$82.90
14:17:43	SELL	Yes	0.9	100	$90.00
14:17:43	SELL	Yes	0.899	100	$89.90
14:17:37	BUY	Yes	0.9	157	$141.30
13:59:02	BUY	No	0.0663990306	1,494	$99.18
00:56:29	SELL	No	0.039	64	$2.50
00:56:26	SELL	No	0.04	64	$2.57
00:56:18	BUY	Yes	0.96	16	$15.26
00:56:18	BUY	Yes	0.957136	50	$47.86
00:56:18	BUY	Yes	0.958216409	84	$80.59
00:56:17	SELL	No	0.0448634615	104	$4.67
19:31:32	SELL	Yes	0.926	20	$18.52
18:12:12	BUY	Yes	0.9468848168	191	$180.86