PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

OrionStars

0x2733be3f5f1cf6c089445aef365653cb8c65a3c4

Realised P&L
$-606.13
Volume
$86.0k
Markets traded
8,120
Open portfolio
$107.62

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded8,120
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4800.355$35.50−$12.50
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? · Yes0.7600.995$33.71+$7.95
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on September 28? · No0.9400.930$15.24−$0.16
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on September 28? · Yes0.3300.415$12.97+$2.66
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 28? · Yes0.4400.425$8.14−$0.29
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.6590.045$1.70−$23.25
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 28? · No0.4100.004$0.21−$24.22
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 28? · Yes0.4700.002$0.09−$27.05
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 28? · No0.6000.001$0.02−$18.32
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on September 28? · No0.6000.001$0.01−$8.66
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 28? · No0.5260.001$0.01−$11.46
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 28? · Yes0.8300.001$0.00−$6.43
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 28? · Yes0.5300.001$0.00−$3.98
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET · Up0.8100.000$0.00−$20.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET · Down0.9700.000$0.00−$14.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-28 14:14Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on September 28?SELL0.98$4.90
09-28 14:12Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28?SELL0.98$4.90
09-28 13:04Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on September 28?BUY0.33$10.32
09-28 13:04Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 28?BUY0.44$2.35
09-28 13:04Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on September 28?BUY0.94$5.64
09-28 12:51Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on September 28?BUY0.9$4.87
09-28 12:35Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28?BUY0.76$12.35
09-28 08:45Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 28?SELL0.99$9.90
09-28 08:00Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 28?BUY0.47$4.70
09-28 08:00Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on September 28?BUY0.6$2.05
09-28 04:08Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 28?BUY0.6$6.66
09-28 04:05Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28?BUY0.77$16.79
09-22 17:08Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 25, 2026?BUY0.9$23.00
09-16 16:25Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8143430526$45.24
09-16 09:56Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?SELL0.18$6.82