PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

pmlptest

0x271eea13580880cae18765ce3c3d2f548d43f001

Realised P&L
$-382.17
Volume
$202.0k
Markets traded
235
Open portfolio
$324.24

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded235
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration96.3% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration7.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Spotify say "World Cup" during earnings call? · Yes0.4500.470$23.50+$1.00
Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.4100.425$21.25+$0.75
Will SpaceX say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call? · Yes0.4800.660$19.80+$5.40
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? · Yes0.6700.942$18.83+$5.44
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.5000.435$17.40$2.60
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · No0.6900.670$13.40$0.40
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · No0.6100.645$12.90+$0.70
Will AMD say "Frontier" during earnings call? · Yes0.4800.355$10.65$3.75
Will SpaceX say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call? · No0.4800.340$10.20$4.20
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? · Yes0.4700.505$10.10+$0.70
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · No0.4600.485$9.70+$0.50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.7200.480$9.60$4.80
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in August 2026? · Yes0.4800.475$9.50$0.10
Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election? · No0.3300.465$9.30+$2.70
Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? · Yes0.5000.460$9.20$0.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 08:08Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?SELL0.23$34.50
07-31 05:00Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?SELL0.143003003$47.62
07-31 04:20Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?SELL0.4331153846$22.52
07-31 03:54Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.32$47.68
07-31 00:59Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.26$2.34
07-30 22:53Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL0.1052686537$5.26
07-30 17:35Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?SELL0.08$11.44
07-30 10:27Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?SELL0.1461959866$43.71
07-30 10:08Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL0.2483418898$94.62
07-27 05:46Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.553$27.65
07-27 05:35Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.2622876318$13.68
07-26 19:46Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?SELL0.21$5.09
07-26 18:22Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.0841880568$38.56
07-26 15:16Will Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?SELL0.61$26.54
07-26 09:55Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.2524208333$24.23