PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Lashibucapiguyonghand

0x78b3ae0dc14ac069c7212d02cfe969d43465a139

Realised P&L
$-167.68
Volume
$98.3k
Markets traded
310
Open portfolio
$320.62

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded310
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration41.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? · Yes0.3300.655$134.28+$66.72
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? · Yes0.2410.225$76.50−$5.41
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.2120.145$62.56−$29.09
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes0.0290.026$27.10−$2.56
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? · No0.1600.150$7.27−$0.48
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%? · Yes0.0040.002$3.08−$2.92
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? · Yes0.0020.001$2.52−$2.48
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? · No0.0100.017$1.70+$0.70
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? · Yes0.0090.001$1.13−$8.87
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? · Yes0.0090.009$1.06+$0.06
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? · Yes0.0050.007$0.84+$0.24
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? · Yes0.0900.065$0.78−$0.30
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? · No0.0100.007$0.75−$0.25
Will Nvidia have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? · Yes0.0090.004$0.54−$0.54
Will Tencent have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? · Yes0.0010.002$0.29+$0.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-18 05:24Will Tencent have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?BUY0.001$0.12
10-18 05:24Will Anthropic have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?BUY0.001$0.07
10-18 05:23Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?BUY0.009$0.64
10-18 05:23Will Nvidia have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?BUY0.009$0.11
10-18 03:03Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?BUY0.09$1.08
10-17 23:02Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETSELL0.77$2.65
10-17 23:00Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETBUY0.2899999884$1.00
10-17 08:03Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.029$15.37
10-17 08:00Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?SELL0.22$44.00
10-12 21:21Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.029$7.82
10-12 21:20NATO article 5 before 2027?SELL0.05$1.00
10-12 21:20Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?SELL0.008$0.80
10-12 21:20Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?SELL0.0081681237$1.46
10-12 21:20Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?SELL0.052228$5.22
10-12 17:42Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.029$1.70