PolyBot

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Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-31
Resolves by
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
Rewards
50 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.067. up 0.018 over the period, from 0.049. Range 0.041 to 0.070. 150 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.078615615
0.07950665
0.08172737
0.0829101,648
0.0834052,053
0.0857372,790
0.0879073,697
0.0888774,574
0.0962,0126,586
0.097716,657
0.0984407,097
0.099507,147

Spread0.023Mid0.067

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.055999999
0.0542721,271
0.0532,1233,394
0.0515573,951
0.0503554,306
0.0484394,744
0.0467075,451
0.0458796,330
0.0361226,452
0.0354406,892
0.0291,9508,842
0.0288009,642

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.945999999
0.9462721,271
0.9472,1233,394
0.9495573,951
0.9503554,306
0.9524394,744
0.9547075,451
0.9558796,330
0.9641226,452
0.9654406,892
0.9711,9508,842
0.9728009,642

Spread0.023Mid0.933

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.922615615
0.92150665
0.91972737
0.9189101,648
0.9174052,053
0.9157372,790
0.9139073,697
0.9128774,574
0.9042,0126,586
0.903716,657
0.9024407,097
0.901507,147

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
nj23adsknml3Yes1,667
fledgerYes560.89
GuyFromTinderYes198.36
0x0174…95b0Yes83.33
xtxpleasecallmeYes73.44
Numitus1994Yes71.01
2B9SYes42.21
SlackjawYes20
johncashiYes15.16
mavsgseguritasYes11.41
xd.kwokYes5
rocky42018Yes1.81
0xbada…d874Yes1.06
bechamelYes1
TomekyyNo1,772.98
chessplayerNo197.56
cigarettesNo178
NoSteinNoGateNo118.36
kjaskdaskdadsdNo100
commeowderNo89.57

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
23:34:39BUYYes0.0709999998378$26.84
23:34:37BUYYes0.0699999999439$30.76
16:46:24SELLYes0.0411$0.03
16:46:21BUYYes0.04943$2.11
16:31:27SELLNo0.9496$5.92
16:30:34BUYNo0.95099999635$4.90
16:30:34BUYNo0.95099999666$5.95
05:13:19SELLNo0.93110$9.32
05:12:15BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
04:19:10SELLNo0.92910$9.30
04:18:13BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:57:43SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:57:03BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:55:15SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:54:30BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:51:12SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:50:31BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:41:43SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:41:21BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:14:06SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:13:13BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:12:43SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:12:09BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31
03:05:12SELLNo0.92910$9.30
03:04:24BUYNo0.92999999410$9.31