xd.kwok
0x77fe1c872681e67513ac25137fdfa6eacdc1c253
- Realised P&L
- $-593.73
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 977
- Open portfolio
- $20.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded977
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.265 | $5.30 | −$10.10 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.265 | $5.04 | −$2.00 |
| Myspace relaunched in 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.240 | $4.80 | −$0.80 |
| Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.120 | $2.28 | −$7.41 |
| Will The Pitt be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? · Yes | 0.318 | 0.060 | $1.21 | −$5.15 |
| Will Pragmata win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.090 | $1.08 | −$2.40 |
| Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.225 | $0.68 | −$0.65 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.066 | $0.33 | −$1.82 |
| Cambria listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.032 | $0.09 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.35at 0.429Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?
- +$19.93at 0.382Ethereum above 1,860 on August 11, 12PM ET?
- +$18.97at 0.587Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 5AM ET
- +$18.79at 0.587Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 1AM ET
- +$16.91at 0.567XRP Up or Down - July 26, 8AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 06:30 | Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%? | SELL | 0.902 | $3.00 |
| 10-12 06:30 | Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.73 |
| 10-11 12:14 | Will the cure (Olivia Rodrigo) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | SELL | 0.3015238095 | $6.33 |
| 10-04 16:09 | Will Víctor Julio León Álvarez win the next Trujillo mayoral elections? | SELL | 0.112 | $5.30 |
| 10-04 16:08 | Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $16.37 |
| 10-03 13:25 | Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%? | SELL | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 10-02 15:24 | Will Rob Burton win the 2026 Oakville mayoral election? | SELL | 0.54 | $11.29 |
| 10-02 15:23 | Will “I Can't Love You Anymore” by Ella Langley and Morgan Wallen win Musical Event of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | SELL | 0.41 | $11.01 |
| 10-02 15:22 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.62 | $7.61 |
| 10-02 15:22 | Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | SELL | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 08-29 03:27 | Dogecoin Up or Down - August 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2205188318 | $17.23 |
| 08-27 10:56 | Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | BUY | 0.65 | $16.08 |
| 08-27 01:46 | Dogecoin Up or Down - August 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $16.06 |
| 08-23 13:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $6.68 |
| 08-23 13:02 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | BUY | 0.8199998882 | $6.75 |