PolyBot

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Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-11-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.028. down 0.023 over the period, from 0.051. Range 0.013 to 0.064. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0445858
0.0454098
0.04652150
0.04821171
0.04945216
0.050229445
0.06020465
0.07250515
0.07310525
0.07610535
0.135100635
0.1366151,250

Spread0.032Mid0.028

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0123535
0.010300335
0.00460395
0.003100495
0.002300795
0.001115910

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9883535
0.990300335
0.99660395
0.997100495
0.998300795
0.999115910

Spread0.032Mid0.972

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9565858
0.9554098
0.95452150
0.95221171
0.95145216
0.950229445
0.94020465
0.92850515
0.92710525
0.92410535
0.865100635
0.8646151,250

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
balthazarYes680
ksassYes228.98
AJSVYes51.03
libratus1Yes50.5
LornaPredictsYes40
Mojito9Yes22.35
Numitus1994Yes21
0x86CA8077b2d19c4B46EF16F05992817A41fc16Be-1782535406963Yes20
ramc2005Yes19.99
Dr.PNLYes18.21
pppnnYes13
0xa5ef…2966No1,116.7
1in1000No34.7
GuyFromTinderNo12.29
0xE0e8050246940cb9028BcD29770afBED238e142E-1775095473922No1.85

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
07:31:27SELLYes0.01220$0.24
07:31:27BUYNo0.98810$9.88
07:31:27BUYNo0.98810$9.88
09:40:03SELLYes0.01220$0.24
17:18:37SELLYes0.0124$0.05
10:02:43BUYNo0.9299$90.79
09:23:24SELLYes0.085$0.43
09:23:21BUYNo0.926$5.43
09:23:21BUYNo0.9195$4.94
08:42:52SELLYes0.080512195141$3.30
08:42:52BUYNo0.91999999820$18.42
23:34:30SELLYes0.10928125$13.66
08:07:06BUYNo0.8928$7.14
07:58:13BUYNo0.850606844530$25.53
07:57:52BUYNo0.8540$34.00
07:57:52BUYNo0.849250381733$27.81
11:54:55SELLYes0.15111$1.59
20:39:06BUYNo0.87915$13.19
20:39:06BUYNo0.8795$4.39
20:04:16BUYNo0.8732$1.49
20:04:15BUYNo0.8736$5.24
17:52:30BUYNo0.8676$5.61
07:34:48BUYYes0.15145680$12.12
07:24:43SELLYes0.1330$3.90
21:38:09BUYYes0.1229999088$1.02