libratus1
0x28b291aa82da13e1d58993873806c92908d5eb4f
- Realised P&L
- $63.6k
- Volume
- $3.44M
- Markets traded
- 1,143
- Open portfolio
- $11.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,143
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.832Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.752US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.588Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.654Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.830Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 09:36 | Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.227 | $14.07 |
| 09-12 17:07 | Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0356911325 | $10.86 |
| 09-05 20:45 | Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.6363163272 | $373.67 |
| 09-04 19:17 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $65.34 |
| 09-04 16:35 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $64.66 |
| 09-04 16:34 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | BUY | 0.814230824 | $57.22 |
| 09-04 16:34 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | SELL | 0.8129817605 | $102.52 |
| 09-04 16:26 | Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0071519007 | $1.88 |
| 09-04 13:08 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $59.33 |
| 09-04 07:44 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9217293611 | $830.56 |
| 09-03 19:48 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9691089094 | $976.68 |
| 09-03 19:42 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $6.96 |
| 09-03 16:14 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.943 | $644.35 |
| 09-03 15:40 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $143.91 |
| 09-03 15:38 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9815833333 | $235.58 |