PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

libratus1

0x28b291aa82da13e1d58993873806c92908d5eb4f

Realised P&L
$63.6k
Volume
$3.44M
Markets traded
1,143
Open portfolio
$11.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,143
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · No0.8710.880$3.0k+$30.20
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.8560.925$1.2k+$92.11
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · No0.8550.998$1.1k+$157.25
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? · No0.9100.955$1.0k+$48.01
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9600.980$937.93+$19.47
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? · No0.6840.660$840.23$30.30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? · No0.8090.769$763.58$39.34
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.6680.735$545.61+$49.69
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? · No0.8370.880$467.05+$22.80
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? · No0.0000.935$407.47+$407.47
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? · No0.7260.798$334.12+$30.38
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.6360.690$284.53+$21.95
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? · Yes0.6080.755$226.51+$44.07
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? · Yes0.7060.881$108.61+$21.56
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes0.8340.795$90.49$4.41

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 09:36Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.227$14.07
09-12 17:07Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?SELL0.0356911325$10.86
09-05 20:45Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.6363163272$373.67
09-04 19:17Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?BUY0.99$65.34
09-04 16:35Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?BUY0.61$64.66
09-04 16:34Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?BUY0.814230824$57.22
09-04 16:34Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?SELL0.8129817605$102.52
09-04 16:26Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.0071519007$1.88
09-04 13:08Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 8, 2026?BUY0.65$59.33
09-04 07:44Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?BUY0.9217293611$830.56
09-03 19:48Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?SELL0.9691089094$976.68
09-03 19:42Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?SELL0.04$6.96
09-03 16:14Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?BUY0.943$644.35
09-03 15:40Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?BUY0.971$143.91
09-03 15:38Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?BUY0.9815833333$235.58