libratus1
0x28b291aa82da13e1d58993873806c92908d5eb4f
- Realised P&L
- $56.6k
- Volume
- $3.27M
- Markets traded
- 1,029
- Open portfolio
- $3.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,029
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.832Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.752US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.588Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.830Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.691Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 14:21 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $170.51 |
| 08-01 14:20 | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.9k |
| 08-01 07:37 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | BUY | 0.81 | $230.71 |
| 08-01 07:37 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? | BUY | 0.6937670952 | $423.58 |
| 08-01 07:29 | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9896466934 | $737.61 |
| 08-01 07:29 | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9776473048 | $823.04 |
| 07-30 22:05 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0232485797 | $8.23 |
| 07-30 18:37 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $93.56 |
| 07-30 18:24 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $31.14 |
| 07-30 18:12 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.074 | $32.45 |
| 07-29 17:53 | Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $39.56 |
| 07-27 18:55 | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8798283197 | $289.55 |
| 07-25 16:34 | Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $98.26 |
| 07-25 10:10 | Will any other model be the best AI model on July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $319.18 |
| 07-24 18:34 | Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9797977892 | $145.36 |