Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://lmarena.ai/

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.032. down 0.024 over the period, from 0.055. Range 0.032 to 0.055. 153 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.043	23	23
0.044	28	51
0.045	236	287
0.046	226	513
0.060	853	1,366
0.070	110	1,476
0.120	6	1,483
0.590	483	1,966
0.800	10	1,976
0.809	261	2,237
0.810	750	2,987
0.840	1,113	4,100

Spread0.023Mid0.032

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.020	520	520
0.012	40	560
0.011	9	569
0.010	1,000	1,569
0.005	38	1,607
0.004	208	1,815
0.003	340	2,155
0.002	1,182	3,337
0.001	4,033	7,369

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.980	520	520
0.988	40	560
0.989	9	569
0.990	1,000	1,569
0.995	38	1,607
0.996	208	1,815
0.997	340	2,155
0.998	1,182	3,337
0.999	4,033	7,369

Spread0.023Mid0.968

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.957	23	23
0.956	28	51
0.955	236	287
0.954	226	513
0.940	853	1,366
0.930	110	1,476
0.880	6	1,483
0.410	483	1,966
0.200	10	1,976
0.191	261	2,237
0.190	750	2,987
0.160	1,113	4,100

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
LornaPredicts	Yes	445.6
Dr.PNL	Yes	380.03
rocky42013	Yes	300
0x6b0e…e3ea	Yes	236.07
Numitus1994	Yes	226.46
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	168.8
thecaricature	Yes	150.01
BSS37	Yes	100
planktonXD	Yes	99.6
jensond	Yes	29.95
80sdfs	Yes	27.8
romanew-crypto	Yes	22.96
53asdad	Yes	21.7
Bsau4	Yes	20
sybaujustbet	Yes	20
DooBieZ	Yes	20
0x2E1C6E971cff5c3259090d3dEa7802A15e4eDB61-1779115991589	Yes	14.99
perepuk	Yes	7.73
MemeLoverOfficial	Yes	5
0xc6d7…4399	Yes	3.52

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
10:21:48	BUY	Yes	0.04	125	$5.00
16:26:43	SELL	Yes	0.04	78	$3.14
17:23:43	BUY	No	0.95	10	$9.50
21:05:20	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50
20:17:38	SELL	Yes	0.05	128	$6.38
19:57:11	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50
12:10:32	BUY	No	0.9499997086	2	$1.63
07:59:08	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50
06:01:27	BUY	No	0.95	5	$5.00
05:57:11	BUY	No	0.95	50	$47.50
23:23:41	BUY	No	0.95	82	$77.90
18:15:21	BUY	No	0.95	500	$475.00
21:26:44	BUY	No	0.95	500	$475.00
05:04:09	BUY	No	0.95	30	$28.50
05:02:33	BUY	No	0.95	17	$16.14
02:46:27	SELL	No	0.94	3	$3.18
20:17:02	SELL	Yes	0.05	47	$2.35
19:34:48	SELL	Yes	0.05	47	$2.35
13:51:45	SELL	Yes	0.05	47	$2.35
20:51:35	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50
20:00:36	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50
20:16:29	SELL	Yes	0.05	111	$5.56
20:36:29	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50
21:50:17	BUY	Yes	0.06	50	$3.00
20:26:14	SELL	Yes	0.05	50	$2.50