Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.42. up 0.33 over the period, from 0.09. Range 0.05 to 0.47. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.46	311	311
0.47	400	711
0.61	18	729
0.62	29	758
0.64	20	778
0.65	15	794
0.73	50	844
0.74	110	954
0.75	300	1,254
0.86	20	1,274
0.90	20	1,294
0.97	25	1,318

Spread0.07Mid0.43

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.39	65	65
0.26	27	92
0.25	142	234
0.24	40	274
0.21	40	314
0.20	55	369
0.18	80	449
0.17	40	489
0.15	75	564
0.13	30	594
0.11	90	684
0.10	41	725

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.61	65	65
0.74	27	92
0.75	142	234
0.76	40	274
0.79	40	314
0.80	55	369
0.82	80	449
0.83	40	489
0.85	75	564
0.87	30	594
0.89	90	684
0.90	41	725

Spread0.07Mid0.57

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.54	311	311
0.53	400	711
0.39	18	729
0.38	29	758
0.36	20	778
0.35	15	794
0.27	50	844
0.26	110	954
0.25	300	1,254
0.14	20	1,274
0.10	20	1,294
0.03	25	1,318

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yes	1,163.38
Hyp3rion	Yes	321.09
0x4025c911Cf213D04ff2d409BAEe57D1b270c3644-1781053677729	Yes	293.21
omsode	Yes	202
Banditoes	Yes	140
shikashiz	Yes	75.75
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	71.71
0x033b…5fd4	Yes	70.04
alamedamemola	Yes	49.98
0x0174…95b0	Yes	28.57
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	24.04
onyxt	Yes	20.39
keynesk	Yes	15
isnE4ZgjkP3nxh	Yes	7.46
BattleOrders	Yes	5
xixihaha009	Yes	3.68
Lordofebola	Yes	1
hih999	Yes	1
balthazar	No	1,388.8
molodoyy	No	335.08

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
03:10:10	SELL	No	0.54	40	$21.60
23:40:31	BUY	Yes	0.3410508258	293	$100.00
21:54:25	BUY	Yes	0.26	191	$49.61
19:34:49	BUY	Yes	0.2599999812	7	$1.94
07:21:46	SELL	Yes	0.3281790499	411	$134.72
23:59:44	SELL	Yes	0.34	80	$27.20
21:49:23	SELL	Yes	0.34	40	$13.60
19:49:08	BUY	No	0.66	40	$26.40
19:49:04	BUY	No	0.659999963	8	$5.00
19:49:04	BUY	No	0.59	335	$197.70
11:21:59	SELL	Yes	0.41	1	$0.28
19:20:16	BUY	No	0.6	20	$12.00
19:19:16	BUY	No	0.6	10	$6.00
19:19:16	BUY	No	0.6	40	$24.00
18:22:02	SELL	Yes	0.4	3	$1.01
18:09:36	BUY	No	0.5533065596	239	$132.26
18:08:02	SELL	No	0.54	15	$7.99
18:03:59	BUY	No	0.55	30	$16.50
18:02:12	BUY	No	0.55	160	$88.00
18:02:12	BUY	No	0.55	3	$1.76
12:47:03	SELL	Yes	0.45	2	$0.81
11:06:27	SELL	Yes	0.45	5	$2.25
09:24:00	BUY	Yes	0.3551522533	411	$145.79
09:24:00	BUY	Yes	0.36	15	$5.47
09:24:00	BUY	No	0.58	10	$5.80