0x4025c911Cf213D04ff2d409BAEe57D1b270c3644-1781053677729
0x4025c911cf213d04ff2d409baee57d1b270c3644
- Realised P&L
- $-250.75
- Volume
- $138.3k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$254.82at 0.235Will Filipe Barros win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- +$211.43at 0.613Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- +$209.35at 0.157Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
- +$143.72at 0.086Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?
- +$140.79at 0.010Renan Santos participates in debate before first round?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 20:54 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3464484166 | $10.74 |
| 10-28 13:01 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $13.42 |
| 10-27 18:37 | Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $40 in 2026? | BUY | 0.376875 | $48.24 |
| 10-27 14:16 | Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026? | BUY | 0.1064163237 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 11:08 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1786537481 | $55.88 |
| 10-25 16:18 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%? | BUY | 0.3203883476 | $50.00 |
| 10-24 21:06 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%? | BUY | 0.3248031495 | $50.00 |
| 10-24 17:33 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%? | BUY | 0.2899999985 | $50.00 |
| 10-23 13:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.4199999984 | $100.00 |
| 10-22 22:08 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%? | BUY | 0.2799999993 | $100.00 |
| 10-22 22:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $200.00 |
| 10-21 21:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | SELL | 0.41 | $202.50 |
| 10-21 15:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | SELL | 0.2 | $105.26 |
| 10-21 13:22 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.1899999998 | $100.00 |
| 10-21 13:21 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | SELL | 0.35 | $95.67 |