PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

0x4025c911Cf213D04ff2d409BAEe57D1b270c3644-1781053677729

0x4025c911cf213d04ff2d409baee57d1b270c3644

Realised P&L
$-250.75
Volume
$138.3k
Markets traded
125
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded125
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026? · Yes0.4360.595$470.79+$125.55
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? · No0.1980.420$170.01+$89.97
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? · No0.5190.445$165.63−$27.54
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? · No0.2400.620$154.98+$94.98
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? · No0.5550.905$90.72+$35.12
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026? · Yes0.3380.310$79.43−$7.16
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.2600.400$76.92+$26.92
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $30 in 2026? · Yes0.2890.490$72.90+$29.90
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026? · Yes0.1060.155$72.83+$22.83
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $40 in 2026? · Yes0.3770.510$65.28+$17.04
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.1670.170$33.69+$0.69
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? · No0.7200.939$27.37+$6.37
Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026? · Yes0.1510.145$24.01−$0.99
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? · Yes0.0840.000$0.00−$15.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? · Yes0.4270.000$0.00−$300.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-28 20:54Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.3464484166$10.74
10-28 13:01Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.22$13.42
10-27 18:37Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $40 in 2026?BUY0.376875$48.24
10-27 14:16Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?BUY0.1064163237$50.00
10-27 11:08Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1786537481$55.88
10-25 16:18Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?BUY0.3203883476$50.00
10-24 21:06Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?BUY0.3248031495$50.00
10-24 17:33Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?BUY0.2899999985$50.00
10-23 13:13Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?BUY0.4199999984$100.00
10-22 22:08Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?BUY0.2799999993$100.00
10-22 22:07Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?BUY0.4299999991$200.00
10-21 21:24Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?SELL0.41$202.50
10-21 15:05Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?SELL0.2$105.26
10-21 13:22Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?BUY0.1899999998$100.00
10-21 13:21Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?SELL0.35$95.67