PolyBot

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Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-31
Rewards
40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.43. up 0.11 over the period, from 0.32. Range 0.18 to 0.56. 155 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.496767
0.502491
0.5440131
0.55155286
0.56110396
0.579341,331
0.61361,367
0.79401,407
0.80501,457
0.81581,515
0.84101,525
0.87541,579

Spread0.13Mid0.42

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.367474
0.3540114
0.2825139
0.2741180
0.2252232
0.21155387
0.20184571
0.19396968
0.1820988
0.1610998
0.153661,364
0.132501,614

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.647474
0.6540114
0.7225139
0.7341180
0.7852232
0.79155387
0.80184571
0.81396968
0.8220988
0.8410998
0.853661,364
0.872501,614

Spread0.13Mid0.57

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.516767
0.502491
0.4640131
0.45155286
0.44110396
0.439341,331
0.39361,367
0.21401,407
0.20501,457
0.19581,515
0.16101,525
0.13541,579

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
PeterErikssonYes777.62
SuperTestsYes249
FihdrzgddYes50
GuyFromTinderYes40
cacatoYes40
SedoiKaktycYes37.68
0x2247…4304Yes36.41
billygodYes34.49
0x1d08deDaB8F8db00B7Bedf802C116Cbcc0803F18-1782869127151Yes30.3
SmartBoyBillyYes20.1
LornaPredictsYes10
winexecutescaleYes9.39
xixihaha009Yes1
ArmageddonRewardsBillyNo796.39
libratus1No366.04
iutwpfalNo84.4
AJSVNo40.31
pootytherewardfarmerNo29
AMAM13No21

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
13:51:03BUYNo0.4752$24.44
13:50:11BUYNo0.4517245200$90.34
23:33:03SELLNo0.411$0.54
11:19:14SELLYes0.3735$12.91
11:13:23SELLNo0.394$1.40
09:34:21SELLNo0.66820520$13.36
09:34:20BUYYes0.2270777501778$176.58
21:13:53SELLYes0.216$3.12
18:55:36BUYYes0.22999982754$1.00
14:21:05SELLNo0.81211$170.51
11:33:44SELLYes0.1734$5.78
11:33:26SELLYes0.1816$2.88
11:33:12SELLYes0.1850$9.00
07:55:15SELLYes0.1920$3.80
07:55:12SELLYes0.197142857170$13.80
07:37:29BUYNo0.6937670952611$423.58
13:53:59SELLNo0.6647$30.74
13:53:57SELLNo0.6660854344383$254.94
07:39:17BUYYes0.32999978223$1.00
11:34:52BUYYes0.329999981230$10.00
05:43:57BUYYes0.329999981230$10.00
22:52:58SELLYes0.314$1.23
22:49:52SELLYes0.31200$62.00
11:12:51BUYYes0.3210$3.20
11:12:30BUYYes0.324$1.32