Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or below $10 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.29. up 0.10 over the period, from 0.18. Range 0.16 to 0.33. 164 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.33	40	40
0.34	20	60
0.55	20	80
0.60	18	98
0.61	20	118
0.62	30	148
0.63	19	166
0.74	80	246
0.78	20	266
0.79	30	296
0.93	8	304
0.94	20	324

Spread0.08Mid0.29

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.25	80	80
0.18	39	119
0.16	20	139
0.15	90	229
0.14	50	279
0.13	20	299
0.11	30	329
0.10	21	350
0.05	10	360
0.04	12	372
0.03	25	397
0.02	5	402

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.75	80	80
0.82	39	119
0.84	20	139
0.85	90	229
0.86	50	279
0.87	20	299
0.89	30	329
0.90	21	350
0.95	10	360
0.96	12	372
0.97	25	397
0.98	5	402

Spread0.08Mid0.71

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.67	40	40
0.66	20	60
0.45	20	80
0.40	18	98
0.39	20	118
0.38	30	148
0.37	19	166
0.26	80	246
0.22	20	266
0.21	30	296
0.07	8	304
0.06	20	324

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
AJSV	Yes	120.97
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	55
tradetosurvive1	Yes	52.73
0xd2d3E93862A6033d9648ef915B1525865c777bb3-1789898420454	Yes	40
bechamel	Yes	40
2B9S	Yes	16.15
Started-with-20-USD	No	197.34
parameter1	No	63.79
UpTheStairs	No	20
29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.	No	19.99
balthazar	No	10
0xEae721187d1113C0a9BB79d2a13335F7d8618E9E-1734009839636	No	5.88
Bg1211Aesti	No	5.87
ansatz	No	2.83

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
12:51:21	BUY	No	0.71	20	$14.20
11:35:55	BUY	No	0.73	20	$14.60
07:40:59	BUY	Yes	0.2	20	$4.00
01:17:11	BUY	Yes	0.27	20	$5.40
00:12:09	BUY	Yes	0.22	60	$13.20
14:40:59	SELL	Yes	0.2	20	$4.00
14:40:57	BUY	No	0.8	20	$16.00
11:38:19	BUY	No	0.7399999995	38	$28.47
05:40:42	BUY	Yes	0.23	20	$4.60
04:16:04	BUY	No	0.73	59	$42.87
03:32:47	BUY	No	0.68	20	$13.60
02:59:01	BUY	No	0.69	60	$41.07
16:20:58	BUY	No	0.7	39	$27.33
14:32:28	BUY	No	0.71	20	$14.20
13:55:05	BUY	No	0.72	60	$43.20
16:31:29	BUY	No	0.7599999848	13	$10.00
12:12:25	SELL	No	0.79	34	$26.55
07:31:35	BUY	Yes	0.21	86	$18.06
01:06:13	BUY	No	0.75	40	$30.00
19:59:19	BUY	Yes	0.2	209	$41.87
22:51:02	SELL	No	0.83	19	$15.52
22:47:25	BUY	Yes	0.1699999972	39	$6.58
16:50:00	BUY	Yes	0.18	7	$1.26
02:06:30	BUY	Yes	0.21	31	$6.51
20:57:14	BUY	No	0.74	20	$14.80