PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Started-with-20-USD

0x4388640a35b4ecebc33f8c73b58a2b988c615050

Realised P&L
$46.7k
Volume
$947.1k
Markets traded
3,167
Open portfolio
$23.1k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded3,167
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration8.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31? · Anduril0.3870.735$1.4k+$655.62
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.32% in September? · No0.7560.920$787.91+$140.17
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026? · No0.7270.997$738.88+$200.18
Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026? · No0.6180.715$672.10+$90.90
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.27% in September? · No0.8140.930$525.03+$65.31
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%? · Yes0.2990.470$511.34+$185.47
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31? · No0.4360.860$499.81+$246.08
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31? · Yes0.2930.735$491.06+$295.20
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? · No0.5720.615$467.93+$32.78
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year? · No0.7960.800$455.20+$2.39
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.25B by September 30? · No0.5670.885$442.76+$159.08
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? · No0.7500.959$372.37+$81.00
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31? · No0.8170.935$354.41+$44.76
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft? · No0.4610.545$306.82+$47.24
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026? · Yes0.4620.715$304.65+$107.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 21:11Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?BUY0.61$245.74
09-16 21:08Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?BUY0.8666527795$1.1k
09-16 19:44Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?BUY0.642739726$46.92
09-16 19:14Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?SELL0.24$19.94
09-16 18:38Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.49% in September?BUY0.55$55.00
09-16 18:38Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.46% in September?BUY0.5842528736$101.66
09-16 18:34Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?BUY0.1271707866$127.69
09-16 18:34Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?BUY0.22$9.02
09-16 18:22Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?BUY0.238291872$197.80
09-16 18:20Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?SELL0.653442623$39.86
09-16 17:55Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by September 30?SELL0.5726183329$74.40
09-16 17:54Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.325T by September 30?SELL0.8431666115$229.25
09-16 17:20Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 60% or more?SELL0.39$15.21
09-16 17:18Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?BUY0.1034146341$21.20
09-16 17:18Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%?BUY0.2917592384$310.13