Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-10-01
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.978. up 0.103 over the period, from 0.875. Range 0.875 to 0.981. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.980	451	451
0.983	225	676
0.984	752	1,428
0.985	1,770	3,198
0.986	1,675	4,873
0.987	850	5,723
0.988	4,447	10,170
0.989	909	11,079
0.990	8,789	19,868
0.991	3,385	23,254
0.992	1,945	25,199
0.993	2,143	27,342

Spread0.005Mid0.978

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.975	50	50
0.973	40	90
0.972	1,794	1,884
0.971	8,425	10,310
0.970	2,013	12,322
0.968	2,542	14,864
0.967	1,500	16,364
0.966	1,511	17,875
0.965	2,001	19,876
0.960	2,009	21,884
0.959	878	22,762
0.958	223	22,985

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.025	50	50
0.027	40	90
0.028	1,794	1,884
0.029	8,425	10,310
0.030	2,013	12,322
0.032	2,542	14,864
0.033	1,500	16,364
0.034	1,511	17,875
0.035	2,001	19,876
0.040	2,009	21,884
0.041	878	22,762
0.042	223	22,985

Spread0.005Mid0.022

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.020	451	451
0.017	225	676
0.016	752	1,428
0.015	1,770	3,198
0.014	1,675	4,873
0.013	850	5,723
0.012	4,447	10,170
0.011	909	11,079
0.010	8,789	19,868
0.009	3,385	23,254
0.008	1,945	25,199
0.007	2,143	27,342

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Popopolly	Yes	115,728.61
MoonLambo1205	Yes	20,076.69
The-Joker	Yes	20,008.32
qwersd	Yes	20,000
aviato	Yes	17,091.56
thoodr	Yes	13,000
yanping	Yes	8,569.95
0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396	Yes	8,503.58
tsekinming01	Yes	7,998.35
zee3617	Yes	6,353.44
MEPP	Yes	6,253.22
SteveBlame	Yes	5,977.84
wsbwxf	Yes	5,804.71
Stupendous-Innerstate	Yes	5,576.93
Dragontree	Yes	5,525.05
CryptoBizzi2	Yes	5,426
polmar001	Yes	5,390.22
scottxia1988	Yes	5,098.58
Rumpelstiltskin	Yes	4,937.48
cmarx	Yes	4,475.4

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
20:45:39	BUY	No	0.02	53	$1.05
20:45:39	BUY	No	0.02	483	$9.66
20:45:30	BUY	No	0.02	483	$9.66
20:45:21	BUY	No	0.02	483	$9.66
20:45:18	BUY	No	0.02	420	$8.40
20:45:12	BUY	No	0.02	483	$9.66
20:45:03	BUY	Yes	0.98	629	$615.98
20:13:03	SELL	Yes	0.9757011544	5,482	$5348.56
19:59:45	SELL	Yes	0.977	6	$5.51
19:59:40	BUY	Yes	0.9799999167	4	$4.00
18:32:45	BUY	Yes	0.9799999647	10	$10.00
17:40:37	SELL	Yes	0.974	1	$1.10
16:55:22	BUY	Yes	0.9799999929	22	$22.03
16:42:21	BUY	Yes	0.9765112165	410	$400.00
16:33:31	BUY	Yes	0.976	48	$46.92
16:32:06	SELL	Yes	0.972	1	$1.16
15:27:25	SELL	Yes	0.972	16	$15.35
13:41:42	SELL	Yes	0.973	200	$194.60
13:37:12	SELL	Yes	0.973	10	$9.73
13:28:31	BUY	No	0.0269999997	74	$2.00
13:20:18	SELL	Yes	0.977	213	$207.71
13:17:07	BUY	Yes	0.9799996766	2	$2.00
13:05:21	SELL	No	0.02	75	$1.51
13:02:39	SELL	Yes	0.976	4	$3.45
12:54:12	BUY	No	0.021	410	$8.61