PolyBot

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Traders

Rumpelstiltskin

0xfb1b4e2db61efb47bfb1ac92807c76d4f367a11d

Realised P&L
$25.8k
Volume
$692.6k
Markets traded
243
Open portfolio
$14.3k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded243
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5200.265$2.5k−$2.4k
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes0.7000.695$2.2k−$15.67
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.4120.545$2.1k+$523.47
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · Yes0.7600.910$2.1k+$348.15
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No0.6830.900$1.0k+$243.59
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? · No0.9290.985$984.50+$55.50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.4950.635$929.09+$204.54
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026? · No0.7570.860$800.55+$95.41
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · No0.3200.235$368.07−$133.13
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2650.140$350.14−$315.55
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · No0.2650.725$321.81+$204.00
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? · No0.5500.705$216.09+$47.39
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? · Yes0.4600.445$100.24−$3.38
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.8450.525$84.38−$51.42
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.2190.201$80.89−$7.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-28 17:43Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?BUY0.6999683043$2.2k
10-28 17:33Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.45$16.65
10-28 17:25Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.4359618755$562.16
10-28 00:48Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?SELL0.19$20.90
10-20 19:43Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?BUY0.76$1.8k
10-19 15:54Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?BUY0.5156037657$161.02
10-19 15:53Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?BUY0.3020330162$74.28
10-19 14:27Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?BUY0.9248963559$175.89
10-19 14:13Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?BUY0.5699009901$575.60
10-19 14:12Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?BUY0.64$70.40
10-19 14:02Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?BUY0.316$141.54
10-18 03:03Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?BUY0.3562850963$273.46
10-18 02:59Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?SELL0.7753032444$1.9k
10-16 01:26Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?BUY0.92$147.09
10-16 01:24Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?BUY0.92$556.58