Rumpelstiltskin
0xfb1b4e2db61efb47bfb1ac92807c76d4f367a11d
- Realised P&L
- $25.8k
- Volume
- $692.6k
- Markets traded
- 243
- Open portfolio
- $14.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded243
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.8kat 0.185Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.2kat 0.359Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$3.6kat 0.659Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.241Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.772Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 17:43 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.6999683043 | $2.2k |
| 10-28 17:33 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $16.65 |
| 10-28 17:25 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.4359618755 | $562.16 |
| 10-28 00:48 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | SELL | 0.19 | $20.90 |
| 10-20 19:43 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $1.8k |
| 10-19 15:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.5156037657 | $161.02 |
| 10-19 15:53 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3020330162 | $74.28 |
| 10-19 14:27 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9248963559 | $175.89 |
| 10-19 14:13 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699009901 | $575.60 |
| 10-19 14:12 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $70.40 |
| 10-19 14:02 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.316 | $141.54 |
| 10-18 03:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3562850963 | $273.46 |
| 10-18 02:59 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.7753032444 | $1.9k |
| 10-16 01:26 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.92 | $147.09 |
| 10-16 01:24 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.92 | $556.58 |