Dragontree
0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
- Realised P&L
- $152.1k
- Volume
- $16.51M
- Markets traded
- 2,695
- Open portfolio
- $41.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,695
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.7kat 0.443US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$35.4kat 0.540US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$28.1kat 0.288US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$20.2kat 0.194Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$17.1kat 0.019US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:59 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | SELL | 0.27 | $267.44 |
| 11-01 18:59 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.27 | $177.12 |
| 10-31 02:29 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $58.38 |
| 10-30 23:16 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida? | BUY | 0.3740330148 | $304.53 |
| 10-30 23:16 | Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida? | BUY | 0.42 | $211.24 |
| 10-29 23:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.3299111111 | $74.23 |
| 10-29 23:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | SELL | 0.0732621365 | $174.94 |
| 10-29 23:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.3069922838 | $329.03 |
| 10-28 22:24 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.3k |
| 10-28 22:17 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.83 | $284.16 |
| 10-28 22:12 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.8075846404 | $785.73 |
| 10-28 18:51 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $678.80 |
| 10-28 01:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.52 | $2.0k |
| 10-28 01:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.302876411 | $2.0k |
| 10-27 21:19 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4386450408 | $2.4k |