cmarx
0x173314380de52766200850634f85a1b7a88b9411
- Realised P&L
- $221.94
- Volume
- $286.3k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $16.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.690Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.684US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.737Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.404Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
- +$974.52at 0.446Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 01:18 | Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.549899999 | $549.89 |
| 10-17 01:04 | Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4495 | $89.90 |
| 10-17 01:03 | Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5447899479 | $544.78 |
| 10-17 01:01 | Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.638 | $319.00 |
| 10-16 01:22 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.042 | $1.94 |
| 10-15 21:33 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.1474599626 | $842.96 |
| 10-12 16:19 | Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week? | BUY | 0.7636960319 | $396.08 |
| 10-10 21:05 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $1.3k |
| 10-02 21:18 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $640.00 |
| 10-02 21:17 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.7790164686 | $1.4k |
| 10-02 21:16 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.6469362436 | $912.01 |
| 10-02 21:15 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $224.00 |
| 09-25 20:12 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5711134608 | $6.9k |
| 09-07 02:59 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | BUY | 0.79 | $284.40 |
| 09-04 03:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $324.00 |