PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-02
Resolves by
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.60. up 0.22 over the period, from 0.38. Range 0.29 to 0.69. 149 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.764141
0.83546
0.84100146
0.8585230
0.8730260
0.8830290
0.8980370
0.9040410
0.9145455
0.9292547
0.93121669
0.9483752

Spread0.32Mid0.60

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.44243243
0.432,5462,789
0.422002,989
0.37783,067
0.23503,117
0.20223,139
0.12403,179
0.119094,088
0.105004,588
0.081074,695
0.0654,700
0.021004,800

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.56243243
0.572,5462,789
0.582002,989
0.63783,067
0.77503,117
0.80223,139
0.88403,179
0.899094,088
0.905004,588
0.921074,695
0.9454,700
0.981004,800

Spread0.32Mid0.40

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.244141
0.17546
0.16100146
0.1585230
0.1330260
0.1230290
0.1180370
0.1040410
0.0945455
0.0892547
0.07121669
0.0683752

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
russell110320Yes1,918.95
balerinacapuchinaYes1,240.56
Danny283847490191Yes408.5
Terry241129Yes242
0x43dea88d3692adc0941b4f0cd8fb2c3eea6ee520Yes196.67
climateprofessorYes100
xtxpleasecallmeYes66.92
accelaratedYes42.93
2B9SYes20
new-account-test222Yes15
random-random123Yes10
unclefei028Yes10
big-bird1Yes3.86
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209No2,181.51
SS123No1,099.84
TearsInTheRainNo520.13
MKBNo180
MandalorecNo170
0xa5ef…2966No66.91
ebertx - 15868No44

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
18:41:10BUYYes0.6119898143409$250.00
07:35:15BUYNo0.57300$171.00
05:08:30BUYNo0.57100$57.00
05:07:51BUYNo0.5710$5.70
05:05:33BUYNo0.5636$20.36
22:55:27BUYNo0.578$4.56
20:55:12BUYNo0.57351$200.00
20:53:13BUYNo0.562052572489$50.00
10:06:37BUYYes0.4243$18.03
06:55:43BUYNo0.5696816706157$89.48
05:34:09BUYNo0.5967312349413$246.45
01:50:24BUYYes0.5512$6.60
01:40:22BUYYes0.615$9.00
12:50:14BUYNo0.25150$37.50
12:22:04BUYYes0.6326497612292$185.00
11:28:22BUYYes0.380$0.14
02:50:19BUYYes0.3850$19.00
02:46:14BUYYes0.38192$72.96
02:19:10BUYYes0.379999999653$20.00
02:19:10BUYNo0.625$3.10
23:36:55BUYNo0.622698237980$50.00
23:36:41SELLYes0.380784806264$24.26
17:09:05BUYYes0.6314$8.71
17:08:56BUYYes0.6310$6.30
17:08:53BUYYes0.62999997674$2.43