Danny283847490191
0xe495f596819a0554bd35cfa548ce5de04b01c165
- Realised P&L
- $573.09
- Volume
- $115.1k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? · Yes | 0.929 | 0.944 | $3.7k | +$59.35 |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.500 | $3.75 | +$2.40 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$463.92 |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$352.00 |
| Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$680.37 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.176Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.542Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.158Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- +$760.00at 0.747Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?
- +$520.93at 0.518Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 12:40 | Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | BUY | 0.93 | $713.31 |
| 10-12 12:40 | Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | BUY | 0.9284851261 | $2.9k |
| 09-16 12:30 | Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.9442542105 | $179.41 |
| 09-16 03:31 | Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.95 | $475.00 |
| 09-15 19:53 | Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.946178 | $189.24 |
| 09-15 17:30 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 12:34 | Will September 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | BUY | 0.9450483333 | $170.11 |
| 09-14 12:34 | Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.9274106667 | $139.11 |
| 08-12 00:29 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026? | BUY | 0.9488885155 | $1.2k |
| 08-10 12:31 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026? | BUY | 0.9056024514 | $700.00 |
| 08-06 13:13 | Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | SELL | 0.96 | $24.00 |
| 08-06 13:10 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026? | SELL | 0.015 | $1.67 |
| 08-05 23:54 | Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.083 | $1.66 |
| 08-05 22:19 | Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.036 | $2.21 |
| 08-04 12:44 | Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.8970721651 | $500.00 |