Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rewards: 20 min size · 3.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.694. down 0.010 over the period, from 0.704. Range 0.671 to 0.791. 149 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.708	30	30
0.709	127	157
0.710	797	954
0.713	134	1,088
0.726	13	1,101
0.734	5	1,106
0.750	30	1,136
0.751	145	1,281
0.757	5	1,286
0.766	10	1,296
0.767	20	1,316
0.777	13	1,329

Spread0.028Mid0.694

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.680	425	425
0.679	100	525
0.651	675	1,200
0.650	3,000	4,200
0.565	450	4,650
0.564	3,130	7,780
0.563	5,020	12,800
0.560	10	12,810
0.351	8	12,818
0.350	2,000	14,818
0.329	7	14,824
0.310	2,823	17,647

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.320	425	425
0.321	100	525
0.349	675	1,200
0.350	3,000	4,200
0.435	450	4,650
0.436	3,130	7,780
0.437	5,020	12,800
0.440	10	12,810
0.649	8	12,818
0.650	2,000	14,818
0.671	7	14,824
0.690	2,823	17,647

Spread0.028Mid0.306

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.292	30	30
0.291	127	157
0.290	797	954
0.287	134	1,088
0.274	13	1,101
0.266	5	1,106
0.250	30	1,136
0.249	145	1,281
0.243	5	1,286
0.234	10	1,296
0.233	20	1,316
0.223	13	1,329

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
hippoka	Yes	5,269.73
DancewithRisk	Yes	5,134.39
0xB16B00B5	Yes	4,005.33
chunqiu	Yes	3,735.25
ratehikes	Yes	2,753.01
0xeBABa6D3C08C5FfF3d444cE0F751E6D97F15CFf5-1779341123078	Yes	1,952.39
MarginCallMeBaby	Yes	1,500.26
puravida	Yes	1,203.91
akimbogod	Yes	1,187.3
0xf52b…bdf5	Yes	1,048.05
CDAP1	Yes	978.44
0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yes	802.39
bomzh.kolyadun	Yes	796.89
0x1D36756fbAAED1433bF59c80b105396513d82A3b-1771747868231	Yes	704
Deadheadbucky	Yes	653.14
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yes	560.16
SC261001	Yes	544.53
TENETENET	Yes	499.99
howesr1970	Yes	399.99
JotaFoward	Yes	389.96

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
21:48:04	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:48:04	SELL	No	0.293	5	$1.46
21:47:48	SELL	No	0.293	5	$1.46
21:47:48	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:47:33	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:47:33	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:47:18	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:47:16	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:47:01	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:47:01	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:46:46	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:46:46	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:46:28	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:46:28	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:46:15	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:46:15	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:45:58	SELL	No	0.292	5	$1.46
21:45:57	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:45:37	SELL	No	0.291	5	$1.45
21:45:37	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
21:45:21	BUY	No	0.32	5	$1.60
15:00:42	BUY	Yes	0.697	15	$10.46
12:13:55	BUY	Yes	0.693	5	$3.46
13:15:31	SELL	Yes	0.696	15	$10.44
04:08:54	BUY	Yes	0.69	907	$625.97