PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Ahpo

0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c

Realised P&L
$137.8k
Volume
$17.83M
Markets traded
3,160
Open portfolio
$96.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,160
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.921$46.1k+$21.1k
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? · No0.8000.815$11.5k+$212.12
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? · No0.9930.996$7.0k+$17.66
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · No0.9670.979$5.4k+$67.52
US recession by end of 2026? · No0.8850.930$4.7k+$227.39
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.079$3.9k−$21.1k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8320.845$1.7k+$25.00
AI bubble burst in 2026? · No0.8220.930$1.6k+$186.99
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? · No0.9700.978$1.4k+$11.76
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? · Yes0.7140.675$1.1k−$63.98
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No0.7320.855$1.1k+$156.35
Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? · No0.9300.955$1.1k+$27.76
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? · No0.9650.984$1.1k+$20.33
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · No0.9720.985$984.50+$12.50
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8680.868$977.17−$0.31

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-16 08:23Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?BUY0.75$401.28
10-16 07:37Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?BUY0.74$154.10
10-16 07:08Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?BUY0.824$91.76
10-16 07:07Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.87$278.40
10-16 06:13Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?BUY0.827$9.04
10-16 06:12Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?BUY0.8294169427$52.58
10-16 06:12Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?BUY0.8063359894$12.14
10-16 06:10Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?BUY0.68$46.24
10-16 04:35Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.87$17.40
10-16 04:35Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.87$17.40
10-16 04:35Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.87$17.40
10-16 04:34Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.8674535555$919.29
10-16 03:49Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.77$154.08
10-16 03:47Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.24$330.66
10-16 03:41Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.29$309.86