Ahpo
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
- Realised P&L
- $137.8k
- Volume
- $17.83M
- Markets traded
- 3,160
- Open portfolio
- $96.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,160
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.3kat 0.681Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$4.4kat 0.497Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
- +$3.8kat 0.211US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
- +$3.4kat 0.320Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
- +$3.1kat 0.996Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 08:23 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $401.28 |
| 10-16 07:37 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $154.10 |
| 10-16 07:08 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.824 | $91.76 |
| 10-16 07:07 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $278.40 |
| 10-16 06:13 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.827 | $9.04 |
| 10-16 06:12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8294169427 | $52.58 |
| 10-16 06:12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8063359894 | $12.14 |
| 10-16 06:10 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.68 | $46.24 |
| 10-16 04:35 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-16 04:35 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-16 04:35 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-16 04:34 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8674535555 | $919.29 |
| 10-16 03:49 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.77 | $154.08 |
| 10-16 03:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.24 | $330.66 |
| 10-16 03:41 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.29 | $309.86 |