PolyBot

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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-04-01
Resolves by
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Rewards
50 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.65. up 0.20 over the period, from 0.45. Range 0.43 to 0.67. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.662424
0.67182205
0.68281486
0.6995581
0.7080661
0.71145806
0.7273879
0.731501,029
0.746531,682
0.751001,782
0.796802,462
0.805002,962

Spread0.03Mid0.65

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.631515
0.62621
0.573556
0.491672
0.482092
0.4597190
0.3020210
0.1819229
0.1051280
0.0620300
0.0540340
0.0430370

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.371515
0.38621
0.433556
0.511672
0.522092
0.5597190
0.7020210
0.8219229
0.9051280
0.9420300
0.9540340
0.9630370

Spread0.03Mid0.35

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.342424
0.33182205
0.32281486
0.3195581
0.3080661
0.29145806
0.2873879
0.271501,029
0.266531,682
0.251001,782
0.216802,462
0.205002,962

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674Yes1,703.11
DrkuYes1,115.82
NjabJULYes949.45
RolYes300
2B9SYes139.93
0xf453…a674Yes126.98
HaradwaithYes59
yuri2026Yes58.82
erFiodenaYes55.37
Mithrandir.Yes50
0xc24f…220bYes37.01
pump.princessYes35.48
gonnakilmyslfYes30
trader-0eec4a7fYes23.3
climateprofessorYes20.39
RMSystemYes20
hanabfYes20
0x1ee5…6ab3Yes14.44
0x2237…7e66Yes1.64
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209No1,667.55

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
02:25:28SELLNo0.3724$8.74
00:14:01BUYYes0.65653724814$9.48
23:17:37SELLNo0.42116$48.68
09:44:16SELLYes0.5864$36.97
07:53:52BUYNo0.36191$68.84
01:57:55SELLNo0.3415$5.10
17:37:09SELLNo0.3750$18.50
17:36:48SELLNo0.38471$178.98
17:36:15SELLNo0.3950$19.50
17:34:52SELLNo0.4180$71.84
14:40:01SELLNo0.4325$10.76
14:21:25SELLYes0.5645$25.20
13:33:16SELLYes0.555$2.75
13:32:31SELLYes0.5550$27.50
13:07:57SELLYes0.5980$47.20
13:07:55BUYNo0.3771622197775$292.18
09:26:15SELLYes0.6375$47.25
18:09:49SELLYes0.635$3.15
14:39:04SELLYes0.6471$45.38
11:24:49SELLYes0.6330$18.90
10:24:30BUYYes0.6430$19.20
21:03:09SELLNo0.344$1.47
21:03:07SELLNo0.3544$15.28
18:54:10SELLNo0.352$0.55
16:50:09SELLYes0.631$0.42