PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674

0x4cfde1f86106d32eb10c1576224dcf9ede04bef3

Realised P&L
$344.67
Volume
$14.8k
Markets traded
29
Open portfolio
$2.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded29
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample27 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? · Yes0.6310.760$1.3k+$219.16
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes0.1220.585$717.57+$567.57

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-02 20:46Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?BUY0.7037969565$439.09
09-02 20:46Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?BUY0.127799996$100.00
09-02 20:45Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?SELL0.996$549.08
08-29 22:50Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?BUY0.9395973154$140.00
08-29 22:48Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane?SELL0.99$142.43
08-28 19:22Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane?BUY0.9099999999$130.93
08-28 19:22Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?BUY0.87$350.00
08-28 19:22Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?SELL0.9128517286$246.88
08-28 19:22Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?SELL0.9475377864$238.60
08-25 19:49Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?BUY0.9$127.57
08-25 19:48Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?SELL0.9001120056$128.58
08-25 19:48Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?BUY0.64$94.08
08-25 19:47Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?SELL0.7836478599$96.67
08-25 03:37Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?BUY0.64$136.80
08-24 07:50Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?BUY0.61$20.13