0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674
0x4cfde1f86106d32eb10c1576224dcf9ede04bef3
- Realised P&L
- $344.67
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? · Yes | 0.631 | 0.760 | $1.3k | +$219.16 |
| Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.585 | $717.57 | +$567.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.49at 0.496Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
- +$137.14at 0.420Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
- +$56.29at 0.894Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?
- +$48.16at 0.720Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$42.39at 0.928Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 20:46 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | BUY | 0.7037969565 | $439.09 |
| 09-02 20:46 | Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? | BUY | 0.127799996 | $100.00 |
| 09-02 20:45 | Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane? | SELL | 0.996 | $549.08 |
| 08-29 22:50 | Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane? | BUY | 0.9395973154 | $140.00 |
| 08-29 22:48 | Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane? | SELL | 0.99 | $142.43 |
| 08-28 19:22 | Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $130.93 |
| 08-28 19:22 | Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane? | BUY | 0.87 | $350.00 |
| 08-28 19:22 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026? | SELL | 0.9128517286 | $246.88 |
| 08-28 19:22 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9475377864 | $238.60 |
| 08-25 19:49 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $127.57 |
| 08-25 19:48 | Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? | SELL | 0.9001120056 | $128.58 |
| 08-25 19:48 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | BUY | 0.64 | $94.08 |
| 08-25 19:47 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? | SELL | 0.7836478599 | $96.67 |
| 08-25 03:37 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | BUY | 0.64 | $136.80 |
| 08-24 07:50 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | BUY | 0.61 | $20.13 |