0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674
0x4cfde1f86106d32eb10c1576224dcf9ede04bef3
- Realised P&L
- $180.92
- Volume
- $6.5k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? · Yes | 0.924 | 0.930 | $613.80 | +$3.80 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.418 | 0.550 | $394.30 | +$94.30 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.185 | $52.86 | −$47.14 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.83 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.14at 0.420Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
- +$48.16at 0.720Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$34.40at 0.697US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$33.28at 0.919Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
- +$27.40at 0.730Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 03:36 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | BUY | 0.9599999988 | $310.00 |
| 07-27 03:36 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.4554455441 | $200.00 |
| 07-27 03:33 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $104.72 |
| 06-15 19:21 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.96 |
| 06-15 19:20 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | SELL | 0.027 | $0.80 |
| 06-15 19:20 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0166453053 | $1.16 |
| 06-15 01:49 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9691149727 | $186.59 |
| 06-15 01:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.73 | $186.58 |
| 06-15 01:46 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999996 | $95.01 |
| 06-15 01:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $95.01 |
| 06-02 20:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.7899999994 | $37.14 |
| 06-02 20:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-02 20:08 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999975 | $100.00 |
| 06-02 20:07 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | SELL | 0.996 | $237.14 |
| 06-02 20:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.7899999976 | $48.60 |