Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-06-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.41. down 0.26 over the period, from 0.67. Range 0.41 to 0.67. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.43	120	120
0.44	98	218
0.55	18	236
0.73	26	262
0.75	100	362
0.88	16	378
0.89	72	450
0.90	120	570
0.94	5	575
0.99	88	663

Spread0.03Mid0.42

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.40	82	82
0.39	92	174
0.28	29	203
0.27	20	223
0.26	60	283
0.22	32	315
0.07	8	323
0.06	303	626
0.05	500	1,126
0.01	32	1,158

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.60	82	82
0.61	92	174
0.72	29	203
0.73	20	223
0.74	60	283
0.78	32	315
0.93	8	323
0.94	303	626
0.95	500	1,126
0.99	32	1,158

Spread0.03Mid0.58

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.57	120	120
0.56	98	218
0.45	18	236
0.27	26	262
0.25	100	362
0.12	16	378
0.11	72	450
0.10	120	570
0.06	5	575
0.01	88	663

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
chessplayer	Yes	44.5
parameter1	Yes	33.9
norway3741	Yes	26.67
GuyFromTinder	Yes	21
trasheru	Yes	20
AJSV	Yes	19.6
youtube-trader	Yes	6.1
ultra-poverty	No	60.99
0x7969…9fec	No	38.5
pppnn	No	22.28
Anony777	No	20
0xc883…4ea1	No	20
a5533	No	10

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
11:00:19	SELL	Yes	0.4	20	$8.00
10:21:37	BUY	Yes	0.43	42	$18.18
08:36:19	BUY	No	0.42	61	$25.62
07:52:06	BUY	Yes	0.5899999894	34	$20.00
15:30:28	BUY	Yes	0.5549438202	45	$24.69
15:26:27	SELL	Yes	0.5845459504	37	$21.44
15:25:33	BUY	Yes	0.54	17	$8.91
15:25:21	BUY	Yes	0.53	5	$2.65
15:25:09	BUY	Yes	0.53	38	$19.97
16:27:16	BUY	Yes	0.92	10	$9.20
16:26:40	BUY	Yes	0.91	17	$15.17