Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 1, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-10-02
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.07. down 0.18 over the period, from 0.24. Range 0.07 to 0.27. 40 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.08	40	40
0.12	20	60
0.14	20	80
0.16	20	100
0.38	40	140
0.39	65	205
0.41	67	272
0.43	5	277
0.46	100	377
0.47	300	677
0.65	640	1,317
0.67	300	1,617

Spread0.05Mid0.06

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.03	133	133
0.02	247	380
0.01	10	390

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.97	133	133
0.98	247	380
0.99	10	390

Spread0.05Mid0.95

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.92	40	40
0.88	20	60
0.86	20	80
0.84	20	100
0.62	40	140
0.61	65	205
0.59	67	272
0.57	5	277
0.54	100	377
0.53	300	677
0.35	640	1,317
0.33	300	1,617

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
GuyFromTinder	Yes	73
AJSV	Yes	45.5
0x4613…7932	Yes	42
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	29.33
Numitus1994	Yes	21
youtube-trader	Yes	20
LonelyScissors	Yes	20
arbman69	Yes	20
avverti	Yes	20
L2FLP	Yes	20
gambler925	No	149
dedidanc	No	87
0xa5ef…2966	No	73.68
0x734Aac8d054CCdFE0c56508DC39b1fE900676Aef-1776813954204	No	1.15

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
22:38:27	BUY	No	0.8755704698	149	$130.46
20:01:32	BUY	No	0.8699999913	1	$1.00
19:54:21	BUY	No	0.8699999968	28	$24.52
20:02:11	BUY	No	0.96	20	$19.20
20:02:09	BUY	No	0.85	87	$73.95
13:46:42	BUY	No	0.92	13	$11.50
13:46:18	BUY	No	0.92	1	$1.31
13:46:17	BUY	No	0.92	13	$11.67
13:46:15	BUY	No	0.92	19	$17.38