0x734Aac8d054CCdFE0c56508DC39b1fE900676Aef-1776813954204
0x734aac8d054ccdfe0c56508dc39b1fe900676aef
- Realised P&L
- $-725.50
- Volume
- $62.3k
- Markets traded
- 231
- Open portfolio
- $10.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded231
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.640 | $8.00 | −$2.00 |
| Next Claude Opus released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.920 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will there be no next Claude Sonnet model release by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.875 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 1, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.860 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET · Down | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.75 |
| Solana Up or Down - September 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET · Up | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$173.77at 0.472Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
- +$137.19at 0.467Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
- +$132.16at 0.295Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
- +$125.62at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
- +$101.69at 0.823Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 20:02 | Will there be no next Claude Sonnet model release by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 20:01 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 20:01 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 19:59 | Next Claude Opus released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:53 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 09-24 02:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10PM ET | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 09-21 06:39 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:29 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 18:34 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 04:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | BUY | 0.7099998694 | $5.00 |
| 08-18 20:11 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 20:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET | BUY | 0.2599999661 | $4.91 |
| 07-19 14:14 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5899999272 | $3.00 |
| 07-15 21:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.579999996 | $43.34 |
| 07-15 21:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $10.00 |