arbman69
0x4daab14a2e480a98ff1f1933ab2add3e65d9e818
- Realised P&L
- $-534.83
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $37.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.96at 0.710France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
- +$0.50at 0.090Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.210US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.110Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during September Press Conference?
- +$0.01at 0.170Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:44 | Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 09-17 17:49 | Will White House post 160-179 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 09-17 16:18 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $8.50 |
| 09-17 15:59 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 09-17 14:34 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $8.50 |
| 09-17 14:00 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $5.16 |
| 09-17 14:00 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 09-17 13:54 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.44 |
| 09-17 06:04 | Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 09-17 05:53 | Will Éloïse Coulombe win the next Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.53 | $7.89 |
| 09-17 05:53 | Will Éloïse Coulombe win the next Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.55 | $2.82 |
| 09-17 05:40 | Will Onyeka Oshionwu win the next Göttingen mayoral election? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.99 |
| 09-17 02:46 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 09-17 01:07 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.00 |
| 09-17 00:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-17 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.21 | $4.20 |