PolyBot

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Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards
20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.20. up 0.04 over the period, from 0.16. Range 0.13 to 0.30. 160 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.244040
0.25135175
0.6822197
0.6920217
0.7027244
0.7325269
0.7480349
0.9510359
0.9613372
0.975377
0.9810387
0.9963450

Spread0.07Mid0.21

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.17167167
0.16115282
0.1091373
0.0944417
0.069427
0.0536463
0.025468
0.0123491

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.83167167
0.84115282
0.9091373
0.9144417
0.949427
0.9536463
0.985468
0.9923491

Spread0.07Mid0.79

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.764040
0.75135175
0.3222197
0.3120217
0.3027244
0.2725269
0.2680349
0.0510359
0.0413372
0.035377
0.0210387
0.0163450

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AJSVYes335.26
FihdrzgddYes120
pootytherewardfarmerYes58.2
UpTheStairsYes26.06
youtube-traderYes14.94
GuyFromTinderYes11.16
molodoyyNo278.2
parameter1No78.57
dgfd76No62.13
tradetosurvive1No60
abc3No21
cloverpmq2No20.69
weouthere0301No20
M8880No14.5
0x45e606f7849330AdAd37875f835FBdD1B7868FCa-1775496679263No6.5
0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519No2.74
Welcome2026No1.3

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
14:22:39SELLNo0.81$0.56
10:54:55BUYYes0.1720$3.40
09:05:00BUYNo0.8520$17.00
08:59:51BUYNo0.7840$31.20
21:07:00SELLYes0.179828009841$7.32
03:22:40BUYNo0.8520$17.00
03:22:40BUYNo0.8521$17.60
03:22:40BUYNo0.7960$47.40
16:37:24BUYYes0.1720$3.40
14:12:36BUYNo0.840$32.00
09:37:51BUYNo0.839999993312$10.00
03:29:18BUYYes0.17999999069$1.54
02:35:55BUYYes0.1817$2.97
00:39:43BUYYes0.1580$12.00
20:12:23BUYYes0.1820$3.60
18:52:34BUYYes0.1640$6.40
16:40:16BUYYes0.1720$3.40
14:42:43SELLNo0.7721$16.17
14:42:40BUYYes0.2220$4.40
14:42:34BUYYes0.1741$6.97
11:57:59BUYNo0.7920$15.80
07:04:22BUYYes0.1420$2.80
06:24:29BUYYes0.139999997423$3.23
06:12:02SELLNo0.8420$16.80
06:11:49SELLNo0.8520$17.00