M8880
0x44dabe09f4c0d31435be1df63ed299e5207fe225
- Realised P&L
- $10.1k
- Volume
- $1.23M
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $30.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.744Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?
- +$3.9kat 0.711Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-25?
- +$3.4kat 0.544Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$3.2kat 0.680Will England win on 2026-07-18?
- +$2.5kat 0.659Fed rate hike in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 02:41 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.37 | $84.25 |
| 10-06 02:23 | Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $40.00 |
| 10-05 23:19 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $56.00 |
| 10-05 19:01 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.37 | $18.50 |
| 10-05 18:58 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.379 | $75.80 |
| 10-05 18:57 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.38 | $76.00 |
| 10-05 18:57 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.37 | $33.67 |
| 10-05 18:57 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.35 | $57.79 |
| 10-05 17:56 | Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 10-05 17:52 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 10-05 17:51 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $13.93 |
| 10-05 17:51 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $17.67 |
| 10-05 17:38 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $36.08 |
| 10-05 17:38 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $54.89 |
| 10-05 17:25 | Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.72 | $21.59 |