abc3
0x22a42db19a1dd2d7c214e1043a6c557c8eec13e5
- Realised P&L
- $-3.3k
- Volume
- $390.7k
- Markets traded
- 1,697
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,697
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$186.68at 0.490Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden
- +$64.88at 0.119Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$64.20at 0.465Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 1?
- +$63.31at 0.440Meta (META) Up or Down on April 13?
- +$55.35at 0.420Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 04:27 | Will it rain in Miami, FL on September 19? | SELL | 0.89 | $9.01 |
| 09-19 03:59 | Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 19? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 09-19 03:59 | Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 19? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.05 |
| 09-19 03:47 | Will it rain in Miami, FL on September 19? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 09-19 03:38 | Will "Digger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.6 | $36.18 |
| 09-19 03:35 | Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.94 | $28.20 |
| 09-19 03:34 | Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) | BUY | 0.74 | $22.20 |
| 09-19 03:18 | Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on September 19? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.42 |
| 09-19 01:28 | Will the announcers say "Trade" or "Traded" during the Colts vs Chiefs game? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.10 |
| 09-19 01:26 | Will the announcers say "Safety" during the Colts vs Chiefs game? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.68 |
| 09-19 01:26 | Will the announcers say "Referee" 5+ times during the Colts vs Chiefs game? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.88 |
| 09-16 14:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 09-16 01:43 | Will Christopher Crum / Luke Wasson advance to the Final in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | SELL | 0.957 | $19.14 |
| 09-16 01:43 | Will Christopher Crum / Luke Wasson advance to the Final in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.70 |
| 09-16 00:11 | Will Nicole Conard / Marcela Aguilar advance to the Final in Women's Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |