Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://lmarena.ai/

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.037. down 0.005 over the period, from 0.042. Range 0.031 to 0.042. 144 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.053	63	63
0.054	24	87
0.055	1,597	1,684
0.060	146	1,830
0.100	99	1,929
0.109	270	2,199
0.110	119	2,318
0.138	270	2,588
0.140	30	2,618
0.282	270	2,888
0.392	270	3,158
0.522	30	3,188

Spread0.032Mid0.037

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.021	48	48
0.020	5	53
0.015	20	73
0.014	30	103
0.009	23	125
0.008	85	210
0.007	143	353
0.004	46	399
0.003	652	1,051
0.002	978	2,030
0.001	6,978	9,007

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.979	48	48
0.980	5	53
0.985	20	73
0.986	30	103
0.991	23	125
0.992	85	210
0.993	143	353
0.996	46	399
0.997	652	1,051
0.998	978	2,030
0.999	6,978	9,007

Spread0.032Mid0.963

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.947	63	63
0.946	24	87
0.945	1,597	1,684
0.940	146	1,830
0.900	99	1,929
0.891	270	2,199
0.890	119	2,318
0.862	270	2,588
0.860	30	2,618
0.718	270	2,888
0.608	270	3,158
0.478	30	3,188

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Bsau4	Yes	189.13
thecaricature	Yes	166.04
a5a5d	Yes	140
Oklmntrader	Yes	118.92
0xFBI	Yes	100
Cameroooooon	Yes	50.5
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	49.99
Slackjaw	Yes	40
0x58e80Dd4a5c365BA380795103f5E0963a287bB5A-1781767424338	Yes	30
master-gambler	Yes	25.93
JakeBeez	Yes	20
0x6fAc928528cc33Da83116717e3faC109b88b8dC4-1769013811379	Yes	20
LornaPredicts	Yes	20
2B9S	Yes	20
gozilia	Yes	20
pinner	Yes	20
purebaby	Yes	18.75
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	18
daroghi	Yes	5
R21llsa	Yes	4.3

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
17:41:52	BUY	Yes	0.0594059406	51	$3.00
10:29:11	SELL	No	0.94	12	$11.06
15:21:02	SELL	No	0.9600196226	347	$332.69
21:33:52	SELL	Yes	0.03	5	$0.15
20:23:43	BUY	No	0.97	15	$14.55
15:07:23	BUY	Yes	0.0385707069	26	$1.00
13:51:27	SELL	Yes	0.04	20	$0.80
08:49:24	SELL	No	0.95	10	$9.08
08:49:21	SELL	No	0.95	10	$9.92
23:04:09	SELL	Yes	0.04	20	$0.80
23:04:06	BUY	No	0.95	62	$58.52
02:46:00	SELL	Yes	0.05	178	$8.91
02:46:00	SELL	Yes	0.05	20	$1.00
02:45:45	SELL	Yes	0.06	218	$13.09
01:16:58	SELL	Yes	0.06	18	$1.09
14:40:48	BUY	No	0.93	40	$37.20
03:15:39	SELL	Yes	0.07	40	$2.80
07:05:34	BUY	No	0.93	50	$46.50
08:52:34	SELL	Yes	0.06	38	$2.28
01:06:50	SELL	Yes	0.06	50	$3.00
16:12:40	SELL	Yes	0.08	20	$1.63
16:12:29	BUY	Yes	0.0899999851	58	$5.26
15:29:22	SELL	Yes	0.08	50	$4.00
14:58:37	SELL	Yes	0.08	58	$4.63
14:58:10	BUY	Yes	0.0899999857	58	$5.21