Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://lmarena.ai/

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.071. down 0.042 over the period, from 0.113. Range 0.060 to 0.129. 150 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.089	1,647	1,647
0.099	11	1,657
0.100	2	1,659
0.550	30	1,689
0.589	12	1,701
0.590	483	2,184
0.670	384	2,568
0.910	5	2,573
0.990	12	2,585
0.991	21	2,606
0.992	79	2,685
0.993	83	2,768

Spread0.036Mid0.071

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.053	40	40
0.052	20	60
0.050	110	170
0.049	69	239
0.021	19	258
0.020	20	278
0.011	24	302
0.010	40	342
0.006	9	350
0.005	13	363
0.004	6	369
0.003	645	1,014

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.947	40	40
0.948	20	60
0.950	110	170
0.951	69	239
0.979	19	258
0.980	20	278
0.989	24	302
0.990	40	342
0.994	9	350
0.995	13	363
0.996	6	369
0.997	645	1,014

Spread0.036Mid0.929

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.911	1,647	1,647
0.901	11	1,657
0.900	2	1,659
0.450	30	1,689
0.411	12	1,701
0.410	483	2,184
0.330	384	2,568
0.090	5	2,573
0.010	12	2,585
0.009	21	2,606
0.008	79	2,685
0.007	83	2,768

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Perypery	Yes	446.62
Redgoldsnapper	Yes	350.21
thecaricature	Yes	300
tj9	Yes	262.92
0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13	Yes	200
SuperTests	Yes	197
timun589	Yes	150
DatosNoRelatos	Yes	100
BSS37	Yes	100
Biver52	Yes	100
LornaPredicts	Yes	95
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	90.81
Razirback	Yes	75.38
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	28.63
0x3e54e401797B4BBd056Cb0E677fE583B3140d166-1768606845556	Yes	28.17
0x723d3f6b5e2Cc46B2910AB7Ba982b18f971690c4-1772196046497	Yes	28.17
Cameroooooon	Yes	20
0x8Ca96cA2380b1A61939875EE3D2162ef69703e6C-1762978689946	Yes	19
0xca3E18433673840A94b0376604068cf2e65CC9FF-1767540204047	Yes	17.69
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes	10.58

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
17:41:37	BUY	Yes	0.1	20	$2.00
07:15:23	BUY	Yes	0.1	77	$7.70
22:08:08	BUY	Yes	0.0773121	200	$15.46
06:50:27	BUY	No	0.945	11	$10.00
00:39:08	SELL	No	0.87	1	$1.14
07:42:46	BUY	Yes	0.366088	100	$36.61
06:47:05	BUY	Yes	0.11	12	$1.32
06:41:02	BUY	Yes	0.07	60	$4.20
06:29:01	BUY	Yes	0.05	25	$1.25
06:20:40	BUY	Yes	0.049	51	$2.52
00:07:00	SELL	No	0.9578	20	$19.16
12:07:11	BUY	No	0.9729999985	13	$13.00
06:59:53	BUY	No	0.9532015532	94	$90.00
21:10:17	SELL	No	0.95	566	$538.05
17:19:23	SELL	Yes	0.0295714286	140	$4.14
08:57:27	SELL	Yes	0.04	10	$0.40
04:42:07	BUY	No	0.95	40	$38.00
03:31:21	SELL	No	0.94	25	$23.24
03:31:18	SELL	No	0.9444297872	188	$177.55
03:50:46	BUY	Yes	0.05	100	$5.00
02:44:48	SELL	Yes	0.03	20	$0.60
02:44:40	SELL	Yes	0.03	364	$10.91
02:44:36	SELL	Yes	0.04	10	$0.40
02:44:34	SELL	Yes	0.04	26	$1.06
02:44:33	SELL	Yes	0.05	580	$29.00