timun589
0x78aab3c078fac8af298907f1db3017260ed17bf1
- Realised P&L
- $-96.86
- Volume
- $18.3k
- Markets traded
- 394
- Open portfolio
- $9.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded394
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.060 | $9.00 | −$12.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.25at 0.325Rockets vs. Hawks
- +$15.47at 0.038Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11?
- +$14.08at 0.031Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12?
- +$14.00at 0.650Mavericks vs. Pistons
- +$13.50at 0.460Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 16:09 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.174 | $3.48 |
| 07-14 16:08 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.214 | $3.21 |
| 07-14 16:06 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.225 | $3.38 |
| 05-23 06:09 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.173 | $1.73 |
| 04-22 01:07 | 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.4 | $3.86 |
| 04-21 13:13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21? | SELL | 0.105 | $0.84 |
| 04-21 13:05 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 21? | SELL | 0.302 | $1.51 |
| 04-20 01:43 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 20? | SELL | 0.082 | $0.24 |
| 04-13 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 13? | SELL | 0.366 | $0.92 |
| 04-12 01:39 | Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 12? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 04-12 01:34 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 12? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.50 |
| 04-11 09:59 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.07 |
| 04-11 07:17 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11? | SELL | 0.966 | $10.45 |
| 04-11 05:55 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11? | SELL | 0.308 | $4.62 |
| 04-11 04:45 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11? | SELL | 0.28 | $3.50 |