0x3e54e401797B4BBd056Cb0E677fE583B3140d166-1768606845556
0x3e54e401797b4bbd056cb0e677fe583b3140d166
- Realised P&L
- $-21.48
- Volume
- $343.99
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $1.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.060 | $1.69 | −$6.48 |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| GPT ads by March 31? · No | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-17 01:33 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? | BUY | 0.289999983 | $8.17 |
| 01-17 00:28 | Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 01-17 00:28 | Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.0284336754 | $5.00 |
| 01-16 23:53 | GPT ads by March 31? | BUY | 0.0422899552 | $5.00 |