PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xe83c568e7b3C643a2787d8768F340a00FF0e0d7F-1768197654339

0xe83c568e7b3c643a2787d8768f340a00ff0e0d7f

Realised P&L
$4.75
Volume
$6.6k
Markets traded
294
Open portfolio
$107.89

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded294
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration73.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? · No0.6060.915$57.02+$19.27
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.5540.720$6.50+$1.50
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026? · No0.6800.835$2.46+$0.46
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No0.7050.860$2.44+$0.44
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? · No0.5880.672$2.28+$0.28
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · No0.7490.810$2.16+$0.16
US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No0.7620.795$2.09+$0.09
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · No0.3900.795$2.04+$1.04
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher? · Yes0.7980.765$1.92−$0.08
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes0.4750.455$1.92−$0.08
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes0.7040.626$1.78−$0.22
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? · No0.5680.878$1.55+$0.55
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No0.6000.895$1.49+$0.49
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · No0.6500.885$1.36+$0.36
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes0.3600.245$1.36−$0.64

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-28 21:24Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?BUY0.2599999896$1.00
10-28 21:23Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?BUY0.6889999097$1.00
10-28 21:23Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?BUY0.84$1.00
10-28 21:23Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?BUY0.8199999836$1.00
10-28 21:15Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?BUY0.7599999088$1.00
10-28 21:15Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6899996964$1.00
10-28 21:12Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6699996918$1.00
10-26 00:08Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.997$2.83
10-26 00:08Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.998$5.78
10-25 22:53Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.7039999183$2.00
10-25 22:52Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.6899999345$4.00
10-25 22:52Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.323$0.45
10-25 22:52Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.327$0.48
10-25 21:10Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.7099998509$1.00
10-25 21:05Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.6719996559$1.00