Ondra
0x849ccb5907938ce8be18ed5dbf583288e2da4009
- Realised P&L
- $20.9k
- Volume
- $64.37M
- Markets traded
- 3,283
- Open portfolio
- $7.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,283
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.7kat 0.535Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$7.1kat 0.642Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$4.4kat 0.892Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
- +$4.4kat 0.726Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
- +$3.7kat 0.032Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 14:54 | Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.15 |
| 10-30 14:54 | Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0038415054 | $0.86 |
| 10-30 08:57 | Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6790055871 | $151.91 |
| 10-30 08:57 | Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1208289474 | $9.18 |
| 10-25 21:07 | Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | BUY | 0.27 | $270.00 |
| 10-25 21:07 | Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | BUY | 0.1966666667 | $295.00 |
| 10-25 21:07 | Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $180.00 |
| 10-01 10:16 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $61.41 |
| 10-01 10:16 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $261.76 |
| 10-01 10:16 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $32.95 |
| 10-01 10:16 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027? | SELL | 0.57 | $207.58 |
| 10-01 10:15 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | SELL | 0.2175780069 | $380.74 |
| 10-01 10:15 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.596611937 | $481.21 |
| 09-30 19:39 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0341051078 | $15.02 |
| 09-30 19:39 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0342387639 | $46.99 |