0xB16B00B5
0x8a7b576b7a53ef54876f9eca18bcd84f12d8782f
- Realised P&L
- $46.9k
- Volume
- $6.48M
- Markets traded
- 1,932
- Open portfolio
- $29.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,932
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.250Dolphins vs. Texans
- +$3.0kat 0.426Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?
- +$2.5kat 0.006Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
- +$1.3kat 0.731Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
- +$1.2kat 0.990Fed rate hike in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 00:55 | Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? | BUY | 0.8946852444 | $117.51 |
| 08-03 00:24 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.978 | $53.79 |
| 08-02 17:06 | ECB rate cut in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 08-02 15:25 | Trump out as President by August 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $14.87 |
| 08-02 10:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.971 | $194.20 |
| 08-02 10:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.971 | $485.50 |
| 08-01 20:46 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.119 | $49.66 |
| 08-01 16:11 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $20.90 |
| 08-01 16:10 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $12.09 |
| 08-01 14:56 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $1.7k |
| 08-01 13:25 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $291.00 |
| 08-01 12:42 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $368.00 |
| 08-01 11:54 | Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9481263538 | $1.1k |
| 08-01 10:01 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.978 | $2.0k |
| 07-31 19:19 | Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0048653531 | $3.60 |